MLB Betting – Toronto Blue Jays @ New York Yankees

Shawn Marcum (10-4) vs. Phil Hughes (12-4)

Marcum vs. Yankee Hitting

The de facto ace of the Blue Jays, Marcum has been the pitching leader on a surprisingly competitive Blue Jays team. Marcum has won three straight games, not allowing more than two runs in any start. His last start may have been his best of the season; eight innings against Cleveland, allowing just one run on three hits and striking out 10. Marcum is a key figure in the Blue Jays rise back to respectability.

However, that rise may be halted against the Yankees. Marcum has little success against New York in his past, going 1-3 with a 6.39 ERA in eight starts against the Yankees. If you’re betting online, put money on the possibility of Jorge Posada having a big game. The catcher has Marcum figured out, going 7-for-15 (.467) with four home runs against the righty. Otherwise, it’s just another incredibly potent offense that got even better with the acquisition of Lance Berkman over the weekend.

Hughes vs. Blue Jays Hitting

Phil Hughes’ 12-4 record is impressive, but his 4.07 ERA is beginning to cause concern. Hughes has been blessed with loads of run support this season, and it has somewhat masked a string of sub-par pitching by the righty. In his last six starts, Hughes is 2-3 with a 6.17 ERA. Part of the problem could be exhaustion. Hughes is up to 117 IP this year, when last year he topped off at 86. He may just not be physically ready for a full MLB season just yet.

The Blue Jays have a very effective (and very surprising offense). Jose Bautista leads the league in home runs, Vernon Wells is experiencing a career resurgence, and even Aaron Hill is starting to hit the ball with consistency. Add in parts like John Buck, Yunel Escobar and a streaking Edwin Encarnacion and you have an offense that can give a struggling pitcher fits. Hughes has already experienced firsthand how good the Jays offense can be; in a start against Toronto earlier in the year, Hughes allowed five runs in six innings.

Bullpen Comparison

Outside of Mariano Rivera, the Yankee bullpen has a been a sub-par group all season. Joba Chamberlain (5.60 ERA) has failed as a set-up man, and the likes of David Robertson and Chad Gaudin haven’t fared much better. The ineffective bullpen is the reason why New York traded for Kerry Wood at the deadline. Wood isn’t necessarily lighting it up all season, but is a veteran arm and has been pitching very well as of late.

The Jays strong bullpen was expected to be picked apart at the deadline, but it was not to be. The trio of Kevin Gregg, Scott Downs and Jason Frasor all stayed in Toronto, although one or more could be gone if they clear waivers. The three give the Jays a strong foundation in the bullpen that also includes a strong workhorse in Shawn Camp (50 IP, 2.86 ERA). This group definetly has the edge over New York.

Outlook

Marcum’s career struggles against New York probably won’t subside in the hitter’s paradise known as Yankee Stadium. Although both teams have explosive offenses, I’m betting Marcum’s past problems will create more runs than Hughes’ recent struggles.

Pick: New York Yankees