Rory Gold

UFC 101 Betting – Handicapping Kenny Florian as an Underdog

The UFC 101 odds are upon us, and many bettors have tough decisions to make. The main events feature two big-name underdogs who are used to being favorites: Kenny Florian and Forrest Griffin. Fight fans are having trouble figuring out which dog is a legit pick and which is just a money trap. Let’s start by examining Kenny Florian’s chances against the BJ “The Prodigy” Penn.

KENNY FLORIAN (13-3) +180 to beat BJ Penn

Florian is currently the +180 dog, but don’t be surprised if the lines even out a bit next week, as his lightweight title bout against Penn should be one of the closest in recent UFC memory. Both fighters are confident, versatile and intelligent, so it’s hard to imagine one dominating the other.

Is Penn a justifiable favorite? Yes. When he fights at lightweight, his fitness and commitment issues disappear, as he has to work his butt off to make weight. The lightweight BJ is the most dominant BJ, as he’s quick, reasonably big for the weight class and able to use his flexibility to control opponents on the ground and set up submissions.

However, if you’re the type who chases betting underdogs, Kenny Florian is a legitimate choice. He has some matchup advantages over Penn that give him a serious chance to win. For one, he fought as high up as 185 pounds early in his UFC career, so Florian is at least Penn’s physical equal, size-wise. Secondly, he has the standup advantage. His boxing is outstanding and his Muay Thai clinch sets up devastating knees. Lastly, he may be the smarter fighter. Penn is smart, but more in an instinctual sense, just like Anderson Silva, whereas Florian is a student, like Georges St-Pierre. GSP beat Penn using a pre-set game plan and betting management experts should expect Florian to enter the Octagon with a planned strategy of his own. He’s a good underdog pick.