Ultimate Fighter Betting

With sportsbook odds up for Saturday’s Klitchko/Chagaev fight and a free UFC card on Spike TV this Saturday, it’s a nice weekend to be a fight fan. The Ultimate Fighter finale pits the finalists of the U.S. vs U.K. season against each other, but the biggest fights of the night feature already established fighters, several of which won their seasons of The Ultimate Fighter.

Let’s make some picks for the Sanchez/Guida odds and Stevenson/Diaz odds, shall we?

Diego Sanchez (22-2) vs Clay Guida (25-6)

Ultimate Fighter odds: Sanchez -260, Guida +200

Unless Frankie Edgar snatches it, Diego “Nightmare” Sanchez could be one win away from a lightweight title shot against the winner of the Penn/Florian fight. An extremely intense fighter, he made a successful transition to lightweight in his last fight against Joe Stevenson, showcasing solid technical striking to accompany his already-strong ground grappling skills.

Sanchez faces the energetic fan favorite Clay “the Carpenter” Guida, known for his long hair and busy, smothering style. What he lacks in size and talent, he makes up in fitness and heart; he latches onto opponents and never lets go, often winning over judges because he controls the pace of his fights.

As likeable as Guida is, Sanchez is probably the most talented fighter he’s faced so far in his career. If you use handicapping software, it will break down the advantages in Sanchez’s favor everywhere. He’s a better striker and he’s stronger – remember, he once fought two weight classes higher. Don’t expect Guida to pull off the upset.

Daily sports pick: Diego Sanchez -260

Nate Diaz (10-3) vs Joe Stevenson (34-10)

Ultimate Fighter odds: Diaz -140, Stevenson +110

Can the enigmatic Diaz finally break through? He joins Sanchez and his opponent, Joe “Daddy” Stevenson, as Ultimate Fighter winners competing Saturday night. Diaz is a bit of a freak in the lightweight division because he’s six feet tall, giving him a huge reach advantage and making his Jiu-Jitsu game that much better. He’ll likely try to submit Stevenson, and that won’t be an easy task. Stevenson is a strong wrestler with great ground-and-pound and can also submit opponents with his trademark guillotine choke.

However, Stevenson is devolving when he should be evolving. He’s making a habit of losing important fights, as BJ Penn, Kenny Florian and Diego Sanchez all outclassed him. He has to stop trying to be a striker – he’s just not very good at it, perhaps because of his stumpy stature – and should focus on what he does best. There’s nothing to suggest he’ll change for this fight, so Diaz has the advantage in the online sports wagering.

Daily sports pick: Nate Diaz -140

UFC 99 odds for Saturday’s event in Cologne, Germany are highlighted by a pair of fighters still looking to prove they have some gas in the tank as Rich Franklin and Wanderlei Silva clash in a catchweight fight. One of the rising stars in the UFC will also be available if you’re betting online, while a pair of former “Ultimate Fighter” participants will also be on the card.

Franklin (24-4-0-1) is the favorite at -140 in his catchweight bout of 195 pounds with Silva (32-9-0-1), who has struggled with four losses in his last five fights. Despite the catchweight, it should be pretty even as both are used to fighting at 205 pounds. Silva is trying to bounce back from an awful knockout he suffered at the hands of “Rampage” Jackson at UFC 92, while Franklin was beaten in a controversial split decision by Dan Henderson at UFC 93. Silva’s aggressive style should set the tone for the match, but he’s been making more mistakes as he’s gotten older, leaving himself open. Franklin should be disciplined enough to catch Silva when he’s open.

Cain Velasquez (5-0) will try to continue his UFC ascent as a -200 favorite in your sportsbook when he meets Cheick Kongo (14-4-1) in a heavyweight bout. Velasquez has only gone past the first round once, in his last fight against Denis Stojnic in a UFC Fight Night card in February. Kongo is a replacement for the injured Heath Herring, who beat Kongo in a split decision at UFC 82, and he’ll have an eye on the winner of the Brock Lesnar-Frank Mir match for the heavyweight title a UFC 100. It’ll be interesting to see how Velasquez’s chin holds up against a man of Kongo’s strength, so UFC betting players will have to pay attention to that.

Mike “Quick” Swick (13-2) earned his nickname with a 20-second knockout of Alex Schoenauer in the finale of the first “Ultimate Fighter” season, while Ben Saunders (7-0-2) beat Dan Barrera in a decision in the sixth season of the show. Swick is the UFC betting favorite at -225 in this in this welterweight bout, and he’ll be going for the knockout, but Saunders is a well-rounded fighter who can strike as well as go to the ground. An UFC betting upset isn’t out of the question in this fight.

UFC 98 Preview

UFC 98 features an undefeated champ and an undefeated challenger, someone is going home with a loss.  The UFC originally wanted the light-weight championship match to headline UFC 100 but after Frank Mir had to delay his bout with Brock Lesnar, Evans and Machida was pushed up to the May 23^rd show.

The Show also features a fantastic grudge match, Matt Hughes vs. Matt Serra, as well as a couple of UFC 97 fighters jumping back in the cage and lots of replacements. This card has been rearranged several times because of fighters dropping out with injuries.

Let’s have a look at the odds and how each match should play out. 

The Odds are courtesy of our good friends at 5Dimes.com 

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UFC 97 happens April 18 in Montreal, the card features the best pound for pound fighter on the planet and a lot of Canadians. It’s not the best card we’ve seen but there are enough fights of interest to make it worth watching. Here are my picks for the fight, bet them if you wish. I will update this post a little later in the week with the most current UFC fight odds.

Anderson “Spider” Silva vs. Thales Leites
Anderson Silva has run through every fighter the UFC has put in front of him. He hasn’t lost cleanly (Silva was disqualified in 2006) since 2004.  His last was to a Ryo Chonan who is coincidentally on the undercard for UFC 97.  I don’t see Thales Leites putting up much resistance against the Spider. Thales Leites has padded his record with some unspectacular wins over Pete Sell, Drew McFedries and a suspect win over Nate Marquardt who had points deducted twice for dubious illegal strikes. Read the rest of this entry »