Rory Gold

I was interviewed for a major men’s magazine last year but the editors decided internet gambling was a little too hot button so the entire piece was scrapped, well not the entire piece the editors allowed the portions involving the Las Vegas sportsbooks. Let’s hope the climate changes for the positive in the next year or so for the Online Sportsbook community. So I decided if the magazine wouldn’t run the interview I figured I might as well.  I won’t name the magazine but I will give its initials, GQ.

Have a read.

Q: The first questions I have are regarding what I call “The Best Moments in Sports Betting History (if not necessarily in Sports History).”  For instance, the most famous example is Chris Duhon’s shot against Uconn in the 2004 NCAA tournament when he nailed a thirty-eight foot three pointer at the buzzer to bring the score to 79-78.  Duke didn’t win but, with that last shot, they did cover.  Do you remember this game?

If so, what was your reaction?

Rory Gold: I remember watching this game very well; Okafor went to the line and missed his foul shot, it didn’t matter with 3 seconds left Duke couldn’t come back. Like every other online and Vegas Sportsbook we were huge Duke fans as the bettors were heavily behind UCONN. In those three seconds we went from crushed to ecstatic when Duhon tossed up his “meaningless” three.  I should add that the UConn game was just as memorable for the TV coverage as it was for the bad beat. CBS cut away to a “postgame” interview with the second left and flashing a “final score”, a lot of people who didn’t see the basket in the background were surprised to find their bet was a loser.

Had it been just a bad beat, with no confusion around the final score, we probably wouldn’t be talking about it now.

Q: What was the reaction of the gambling community?

RG: UCONN was so dominant in 2004, with the line only 1.5 everyone and their mom were betting on Huskies. Like all the other books we stood to lose a considerable amount of money if UCONN covered but thankfully Duhon became a folk hero in the bookmaker’s eyes.

The Bettors who backed UCONN were stunned to say the least; this game still comes up when I talk to bettors about their worst beats ever.

Q: How much money do you think change hands with that one, seemingly meaningless, shot?

RG: There was about a 30 million dollar swing on Duhon’s shot.

Q: What about Robin Ventura’s Grand Slam single in the 1999 NLCS?

RG: I believe Ventura’s hit was technically a double. Good news is it didn’t really matter as the game was over the total anyways and the Yankees were the favorite strange result but didn’t really affect betting…unless you had a bet on Ventura to hit a home run!

Wisconsin at UNLV 5-6 years ago was a much bigger problem.  There was huge Badgers money all week. Also big money on over, both bets were cruising towards being easy winners when the stadium power went out. So the game was called after 52 min (it was less than the 55 required to be official for wagering purposes) so all bets were off. This caused ripples with players who heard rumors of a conspiracy by Vegas books to have the game cut short.

The conspiracy nature of outcomes like this, certainly keep people talking about them for a long time.  Situations that come up where there is room for interpretation because the unexpected happens it results in many upset bettors. Luckily, they are rare and doing the “right thing” in these cases can have a long lasting effect

Q: First off, is there any bet that you should, no matter what, always avoid?

RG: The bets bettors should avoid are the ones where they haven’t done their research.  If you haven’t taken the time to look at the variables and you are just taking a guess you’d be better off saving your money.

Q: Is there any particular sport on which you should never bet? Cricket?  Rugby?

RG: Bettors can do very well in both of these sports, it all comes down to research, for the average North American bettor Cricket and Rugby wouldn’t be a wise play, just like the average English bettor will avoid Baseball or Basketball betting.

Q: Is there a bet that you should always take?

RG: No, sometimes the smartest bet is the one you don’t take.

Q: What about if someone offers you million-to-one odds?  There was a joke on the television show, “The Office,” that if you have the opportunity to take a million-to-one bet that you should always take it.  Is this true?

RG: Millions of people take these bets everyday by buying State and National lottery tickets.  You would be hard pressed to find any Online Sportsbook or Casino that will offer odds even a fraction of this.

Q: Is there a sport for which, betting on is particularly easier?  I’ve heard that the WNBA and women’s college basketball, while not very exciting, is a good bet?

RG: This is very true; Sportsbooks want to offer as much variety as they can but the bookmakers don’t have the time to focus on these rarely bet sports so the lines aren’t always the best reflection of the two teams involved.

Q: What’s the most important thing to look at when accessing a line?

RG: There are different theories on this but most good bettors will do their handicapping before the line comes out.  If for example after looking at all the stats you think the Patriots should beat the Jets by 7 points and then when the line is released at 10 points, it would make the Jets a good bet as it gives you 3 extra points over your own handicapped number.

Q: How do you recognize a bad betting line?

RG: I’ve never posted bad lines so I’m unable to answer this.  Ok seriously there is a subset of bettors that 90% of the time will take the favorite and another subset that will take the dog 90% of the time, when both groups are on the same side I question the line. Also, when you see a typical $5 bettor place a bet for $100 or $200 it will raise a flag that maybe I didn’t do my homework before posting the line.

Q: How do you recognize an opportunity in a betting line/money line/spread/over, under?

RG: It all comes down to information, the bookmakers want to have more information than the bettors do and the bettors are always looking for there own edge or piece of insider knowledge.  If you’ve handicapped the game correctly and the line is giving your pick more points than you think you need it’s a good bet.

Q: What are the most crucial stats to look at while analyzing an upcoming football game?

RG: The obvious ones are points for points against and turnovers but another stat you won’t find in the pages of your local sports section is the defensive points per 100 yards.  It’s based on the number of points a team gives up per 100 yards gained by their opponents.

Take the total yards given up by the team then divide it by 100 and then divide it by the total points the team has given up.

Q: How important is a team’s record?

RG: The team’s win/loss record is important when you are betting baseball but if you are betting any game with a point spread, it’s better to look at the teams record versus the spread.  You’d be surprise how many losing team are above 500 against the spread.

Q: How important are injuries?

RG: Typically, if there are injuries to the stars it can move the line 1 to 3 points.

Q: How important is home field advantage?

RG: In football home field advantage accounts for about 2.5 to 3.5 points of the spread.

Q: How important is the weather? Rain?  The temperature?

RG: The worse the weather, the lower the score is going to be. It’s important to not only analyze both teams but you have to check with the weatherman to see if weather could be a factor. Unlike baseball, as we saw in London and Miami, football games go on no matter what the weather.

Q: Do any of these things vary within the big three sports?  For instance, are cold weather games better for baseball but worse for football?

RG: Most sportsbooks will not release the totals for games involving the Chicago Cubs until about 2 hours before game time as the famous wind gusts around Wrigley can make the balls fly out in a heartbeat.

Bad weather affects football teams a little differently, pass first teams typically under perform in bad weather.  The wind and cold makes it harder for the QB to throw an accurate pass and it numbs the receiver’s hands so you’ll see a lot more dropped passes.  This partly explains the Colts playoff failures against the Patriots in New England.

Q: How would you suggest handling your money when you begin betting?

Bettors break down there bankroll in to units, a unit is the standard bet amount that they will place on each wager.  It’s very important to keep your bet amounts consistent. If you are used to making $20 bets don’t go and make a $100 bet because you are doing well.  It only takes one lost $100 bet to erase five winning $20 wagers.

Q: Is it better to keep a dedicated pot of gambling money separate from your everyday budget?

RG: Yes extremely important, there is an old saying “never bet more than you can afford to lose”. You may hear differently from bettors but truthfully, there are only a small percentage of people who can be a successful professional bettor. Therefore, unless you’re one of those few, treat gambling as a hobby, enjoy your wins, and don’t let yourself get down about your losses.

Q: Would you suggest a gambling allowance?

RG: A gambling allowance works well if you stick to it. Good bettors are disciplined bettors, they know how much they can afford to lose, and they know when it’s time to take a break.  If you allow yourself $200 a week to bet and if you lose it all on Monday, stay disciplined and don’t make another bet until allowance time comes around.

Q: How do you view winnings?

RG: The recreational bettor should treat there winnings as a bonus. I can’t stress enough how important it is for the bettor to take there winnings and do something with it.  Many bettors are caught up in trying to keep a hot streak going and more often than not it catches up with them and they lose their winnings plus their original balance.

I would suggest if you have a big win take the money and pay some bills or take your girlfriend out for a night on the town.

Q: I think a lot of the time, people struggling with making money while gambling because they view winnings as “fake money” or “free money.”  To a certain extent it’s nice to be able to use this money on expenses you wouldn’t normally, but how do you balance having fun with your winnings while also trying to make money from them?

RG: While it’s very important to have a dollar amount you are willing to lose it’s equally important to have an amount you realistically would be happy with winning.  If you have a good week and you triple your bankroll it’s important not to get greedy or over confident and gamble away your winnings.  At the very least, I would suggest you take out your initial balance and gamble on your winnings.  Betting can be very streaky so take your wins and prepare for those times when the luck goes against you.

Q: The NCAA basketball championships. Is there a better way to bet on the first round as opposed to the Final 4?  What other factors should you take into account?

RG: In the first round, you are going to see the top seeds cover the spread more often than not.  So taking the number one or two to cover the spread versus a 16th or 15th seed is generally a good bet.  When you start to look at the middle seeds, the 9th seeds do very well historically against the 8th in terms of covering the spread.

Q: Why is it that, every year, the person in our office who knows the least about sports wins the pool?

RG: I wish I knew I’ve had women in the office that pick based on team colors, which team mascot could beat the other team mascot in a fight, but really could a tiger beat a bear? For the most part office pools generally don’t have a point spread attached to it and the point spread is the great equalizer between those who know and those who are guessing.

Q: What about the Super Bowl?  Is there any tried and true advice for betting on that event?

RG: Bettors will buy into the hype surrounding the Super Bowl and place bets that match the hype.  Treat it like any other game, never bet more than you normally would, and only place a bet if you’ve done the proper research.

Sharper bettors can do very well with the specialty bets that are offered for the game. Books offer bets on everything from the coin flip to the length of the National Anthem to the color of Gatorade poured on the winning coach.  One year I created over 400 prop bets for people to bet on.  These bets are entertaining and because there is so many, a sharper bettor can select four or five that offer the best value.  The opening coin flip offers low juice and is a true 50/50 proposition; I’ve had some serious bettors wanting to lay thousands on the coin toss.

Q: What about the World Series?

RG: Momentum is always a big factor going into the World Series, two years the Red Sox had it all going in and the Rockies were idle for over a week leading in to the Championship.  This past year the Phillies cruised through the division and championship series and the Rays had a 7 game fight over the Bosox which left them spent for the World Series. I would say always bet on the team with the best pitching staff.

Q: Now, finally, what about the Oscar pool?  Is there any way to determine who’ll win what?  Are there award shows ahead of time that one should pay particularly close attention to?

RG: The Oscars are by far our most popular award show. The Grammy’s always get some attention from the bettors but are a distant second.  I see action on the Oscars that will rival an NBA game, which is no small feat as most Oscar wagers are $50 or less.  The Best Picture is rarely a surprise but the best actor and supporting roles have seen some upsets in recent years.  For example a couple years ago Eddie Murphy seemed to be sure winner in the best supporting category but the bettors must have been scared off voting for Murphy for the best actor award while Norbert was still in the theatres.

So that was the interview that didn’t run.

Thanks and Stay Gold

Rory Gold