Rory Gold

By: Aaron Fishman

When it comes to playoff football stats mean less and less. It is all about the matchups these two teams create. So before we get into Super Bowl Odds, let’s look at the game at hand: Vikings at Saints for the NFC crown.

Minnesota Vikings @ New Orleans Saints

Bookmaker Odds (Bookmaker Reviews): Saints -4

The Spread is currently set at Saints -4 with an over/under of 52.5. The Saints are getting a -205 and the Vikings a + 170 on the money line. Check out real-time updates to the sportsbook lines here:

These are the deciding Key Matchups for:

Bronze: New Orleans O-Line vs. Minnesota Pass Rush

Minnesota ate Dallas alive last week. Flozell Adams’ dirty tricks finally got the best of him and the karma police made him miss most of the game and completely ruined the pass protection of Tony Romo and the Cowboys’ chances. The Saints have kept Drew Brees upright most of the season allowing only 20 sacks. Vikings DE Ray Edwards had 3 sacks in the first half of the game, hurt his knee and played sparingly the rest of the way. He may not be able to give that same push, making Jared Allen and the Williams duo easier to handle. If they get the push, this game could echo the game last week. Should be an interesting matchup. – Edge: Minnesota

Silver:  Adrian Peterson vs. Fumblitis, Short Drives.

Peterson has had a down year plagued by fumbles in 2009. Fortunately for the Vikings, a down year for Peterson is still a Pro Bowl starting season. The Vikings cannot turn the ball over in this game if they want to win. Peterson has lost 6 fumbles and had only 63 yards on 26 carries last week. The Vikings would be wise to get Peterson going early. They should try to keep the ball away from Brees by running Peterson early and often. Favre has shown that he will audible out of a run at the drop of a hat. This will be a gun slingers paradise if old number 4 has his way, which is unlikely to be a winning strategy. –Edge:  Saints

Gold: Drew Brees vs. Vikings Secondary and LB’s in coverage

-The Vikings lost MLB E.J. Henderson near the end of the season; they are down to 3^rd stringer Jasper Brinkley.  The MLB is the most irreplaceable position on the defensive side of the field in the 4-3 scheme. This huge loss has gone unnoticed vs. the Cowboys but almost cost the Vikings the bye at the end of the season. Antoine Winfield is banged up and was torched by Bears WR Devin Aromashadou in week 16. Colston, Shockey an emerging Devery Henderson Reggie Bush and Lance Moore are going to give the Vikings fits in coverage if they cannot get a dominant pass rush. This is going to be the death of the Vikings. Poor play here could lead to a double digit victory for NOLA. –Edge:  Saints, big time

Prediction: Favre is going to want to show on the big stage that he is still great and will not play a game of ball control, which is a mistake for this matchup. I like the Saints Defense at home to keep Favre relatively at bay and Brees to lead the Saints to the Super Bowl.

NFL Picks: Saints 34, Vikings 20

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