Rory Gold

UFC 106 doesn’t give sports betting fans a title fight to wager on but it does offer some very even matchups that make for fun yet difficult choices. For the welterweight clash between Josh Koscheck and Anthony “Rumble” Johnson in particular, bettors are almost split down the middle. Here’s a preview and pick to help you with your decision.

Josh Koscheck (13-4) vs Anthony Johnson (8-2)
Sportsbook odds: Koscheck -105, Johnson -125

Josh Koscheck and Anthony Johnson probably have a few guys in their way before they can top the welterweight contender ladder — Dan Hardy, Jon Fitch and Thiago Alves — but they’re fearsome up-and-comers in the division. Both guys can be classified as next-generation mixed martial artists in that they’re athletes who absorb new skills like sponges.

Koscheck in particular has improved dramatically over the last few years. He was always a phenomenal wrestler and remains arguably a top-five wrestler in the entire UFC for any weight class. He’s become more dangerous over the years, however, by improving his kickboxing and developing some serious punching power. A well-rounded Koscheck has a better chance to contend for a title than he did a few years ago but his new skills sometimes hurt him too. He too frequently abandons his real strength — his wrestling — in favor of “showing” off his newfound striking ability. That cost him his fights with Thiago Alves and Paulo Thiago. It’s the equivalent to a good rushing team in NFL betting getting caught up in a passing shootout.

Anthony Johnson is likely crossing his fingers hoping that Koscheck wants to stand and trade with him. The reason: Johnson is an absolute killer. He’s 6′2″ and reportedly walks around as heavy as 220 pounds when he’s not training, so the fact that he’s fighting at 170 pounds is almost unfair. He’s an imposing physical presence with devastating knockout power. He doesn’t pound out TKOs with flurries — he can floor an opponent with a single punch or head kick. On the feet, Johnson has an advantage. On the ground, he does have a wrestling background but he’s largely untested in the UFC. Online betting fans have to think Koscheck has the advantage on the canvas, though Johnson at the very least will be hard to hold down.

Sports picks choice: Johnson -125. Koscheck can absolutely win this fight if he plays it smart and goes for the takedown, but he’s fallen in love with the striking game too much. The longer he stays standing with Johnson, the more likely he is to have his head taken off. Pick Johnson but understand that this fight could really go either way.

Before the World Series odds arrive next week, the UFC may treat us to a different kind of Fall Classic this weekend. Lyoto “The Dragon” Machida battles Mauricio “Shogun” Rua for the light heavyweight championship at UFC 104 in a matchup between two highly skilled Brazilians. Time to make a pick for Saturday’s main event.

Lyoto Machida (15-0)
Notable victories: Rashad Evans, Thiago Silva, Tito Ortiz, B.J. Penn, Rich Franklin
UFC 104 sportsbook odds: -450

The Dragon is a massive favorite for good reason; he’s essentially been perfect in his UFC career. Not only has he never lost a professional fight, he’s never lost a single round in the Octagon. He’s statistically the hardest fighter to hit in the UFC, as he uses his karate stance to keep himself upright and keep his head far away from opposing strikes. He can hurt opponents in many different ways, as he has powerful leg kicks, knockout power in his punches and a black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu. Machida is also very patient; he’ll likely let Shogun be the aggressor and wait to pounce on a mistake with a counterstrike.

Mauricio Rua (18-3)
Notable victories: Chuck Liddell, Mark Coleman, Rampage Jackson
UFC 104 odds: +325

We can’t underestimate Shogun Rua as an opponent for Machida. Once considered the best pound-for-pound fighter in the world, Rua is a deadly combination of raw striking power and technical brilliance. Not only can he blow opponents away with his powerful Muay Thai knees, punches and kicks, he can pick opponents apart with accurate combinations. He loves to go for the knockout; 15 of Rua’s 18 victories are KOs and 17 of his 18 wins were finishes. He’s submitted two opponents thanks to a BJJ black belt of his own.

Online betting pick: Machida -450. Rua is a very dangerous opponent, so he has a puncher’s chance; if you’re the same type of risk taker who likes the Angels as World Series picks, you could take a flier on Shogun. The problem with him is that he puts himself in harm’s way to go for knockouts. Against Machida, that risky strategy will hurt him, as the Dragon will hang back, wait for a mistake, and explode on Rua. Bet on Machida to retain his belt.

The UFC 102 odds are on the board and as per usual, Dana White has produced quite the card to froth over. A lot of people were talking about how UFC 101 turned out to be a boring card and how the UFC cards since UFC 100 have been somewhat deflating, but UFC 102 will pick up the slack.

The headlining event for online betting to watch will be the Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira and Randy Couture battle. It’s a fight between two legends in MMA and it’s a bout that everyone has wanted to see for a long time. Both fighters come into the matchup in different shape and with a number of question marks.

Couture, The Natural, is coming off a tough knockout loss to Brock Lesnar while Nogueira is coming off of a fight where he made Frank Mir look like Mike Tyson.

There is lots of speculation regarding Noguiera’s shape, especially after how badly he lost to Mir. Just 20 days prior to that fight, Noguiera was in a hospital bed dealing with a staph infection, which may have contributed to his bad beat. On the other hand, a lot of people are suggesting that the 33-year-old had nothing left in the tank for that fight and is running on fumes for this one after nearly 40 fights work of MMA wear and tear.

While Couture is 13 years older, the general feel is that he’s just older man with much less mileage whereas Big Nog is just a car that has been driven into the ground.

If he’s healthy and in shape, those who have placed a sports bet online know that Nogueira is still one of the best in the division and still is in line for a shot at Lesnar if he does win this fight. There are plenty of options for him as well beyong this fight, which include tilts with Cain Velasquez, Shane Carwin or maybe even the winner of the Mirko Cro Cop and Junior Dos Santos battle.

But if Couture comes out and dominates Minotauro like many people are predicting on their sports picks, then the retirement conversation for Big Nog will start up once again. He has to at least put up a fight and keep it close. If the result is one-sided loss like it was against Mir, then it truly means that Big Nog has nothing left in the tank.

As the best teams in NFL betting start butting heads in the preseason, some of the UFC’s top contending fighters a prepare for battle at UFC 102 next weekend. Though the card has no title fights, some highly ranked warriors will try to inch closer to a title shot. Let’s have a look at Keith Jardine and Thiago Silva, both of whom are fresh off losses to light heavyweight superstars.

Keith “The Dean of Mean” Jardine
Record: 14-5-1
Notable victories: Forrest Griffin, Chuck Liddell
UFC 102 odds: -160

STRENGTHS: Jardine is a clever fighter with an extremely unorthodox stance and “off” timing that confuses opponents. He specializes in big kicks; he can knock opponents out with head blows or slow them down with leg shots, as he did Chuck Liddell. He’s no ground master but he’s good enough to hang with Thiago Silva on the canvas.

WEAKNESSES: Jardine succeeds against counter punchers because he takes the space they give him, but he seriously struggles against aggressive fighters who walk forward. Wanderlei Silva and Houston Alexander overwhelmed and obliterated Jardine in under a minute. Thiago Silva is exactly the type of fighter who gives Jardine trouble.

Thiago Silva
Record: 13-1
Notable victories: Houston Alexander, James Irvin
UFC 102 odds: +130

STRENGTHS: Few light heavyweights can match Silva’s finishing ability. Only one of his 13 wins went to a decision and he’s knocked 10 opponents. His Muay Thai has honed him into a deadly striker who can drop guys with his hands, feet or knees. He’s respectable on the ground, having submitted a pair of fighters.

WEAKNESSES: Silva may not be the smartest fighter out there, as his aggressive style often leaves him open to big shots. If he’s not careful, he could get caught with a head kick from Jardine.

Daily sports pick: Thiago Silva +130. As long as he follows fellow Chute boxer Wanderlei Silva’s strategy and smothers Jardine early, he should score a highlight-reel knockout. I’m surprised he’s not the favored by betting services.

UFC 101 Odds – Handicapping the Secondary Fights

Chances are, you’ve started UFC 101 betting already and placed some wagers on Penn/Florian and Silva/Griffin. But what about the other fights on the card? They feature very few household names, but there’s still money to be won if you do your homework. We’re here to help you with that.

Amir Sadollah (1-0) vs Johnny Hendricks (5-0)
Offshore sportsbook odds: Sadollah -125, Hendricks -105

Finally, Ultimate Fighter 7 winner Amir Sadollah gets to fight in the Octagon again. He had two fights cancelled due to injury, the most recent due to a broken clavicle, but he’s finally ready to go. Though he’s still learning, Sadollah is a skilled ground fighter with strong Jiu-Jitsu. He can submit opponents, as he did C.B. Dollaway to win TUF at welterweight. His Sambo background also helps him take opponents to the ground and force them to fight his fight. His opponent, Johnny Hendricks, won’t be easy to face. Hendricks is a wrestler who also has good striking power for a welterweight, as evidenced by his three knockout victories. He’s a finisher who should test Sadollah’s chin with his boxing.

Sadollah is the favorite but he may be rusty; look for the slight underdog Hendricks to overpower Sadollah and bludgeon him with strikes en route to a victory.

Daily sports pick: Hendricks -105

Kendall Grove (12-5) vs Ricardo Almeida (10-3)
Offshore sportsbook odds: Grove +150, Almeida -180

He’re s possible upset pick for you. Ricardo Almeida is a solid submission artist and has scored wins over some good fighters, including Nate Marquardt. He’s well-versed in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu and wins most of his fights via various chokes. However, he’s not the most difficult matchup for Kendall Grove. Grove has a questionable chin and often gets knocked out by power punchers, but Almeida has zero knockout victories in his career. Against an equally skilled Jiu-Jitsu fighter, Almeida won’t have his usual advantage. Standing up, Grove isn’t an absolute killer but he has good Muay Thai and can finish opponents occasionally. It’s smart betting management to go with the more versatile Grove to pull off the upset.

Daily sports pick: Grove +150

UFC 99 odds for Saturday’s event in Cologne, Germany are highlighted by a pair of fighters still looking to prove they have some gas in the tank as Rich Franklin and Wanderlei Silva clash in a catchweight fight. One of the rising stars in the UFC will also be available if you’re betting online, while a pair of former “Ultimate Fighter” participants will also be on the card.

Franklin (24-4-0-1) is the favorite at -140 in his catchweight bout of 195 pounds with Silva (32-9-0-1), who has struggled with four losses in his last five fights. Despite the catchweight, it should be pretty even as both are used to fighting at 205 pounds. Silva is trying to bounce back from an awful knockout he suffered at the hands of “Rampage” Jackson at UFC 92, while Franklin was beaten in a controversial split decision by Dan Henderson at UFC 93. Silva’s aggressive style should set the tone for the match, but he’s been making more mistakes as he’s gotten older, leaving himself open. Franklin should be disciplined enough to catch Silva when he’s open.

Cain Velasquez (5-0) will try to continue his UFC ascent as a -200 favorite in your sportsbook when he meets Cheick Kongo (14-4-1) in a heavyweight bout. Velasquez has only gone past the first round once, in his last fight against Denis Stojnic in a UFC Fight Night card in February. Kongo is a replacement for the injured Heath Herring, who beat Kongo in a split decision at UFC 82, and he’ll have an eye on the winner of the Brock Lesnar-Frank Mir match for the heavyweight title a UFC 100. It’ll be interesting to see how Velasquez’s chin holds up against a man of Kongo’s strength, so UFC betting players will have to pay attention to that.

Mike “Quick” Swick (13-2) earned his nickname with a 20-second knockout of Alex Schoenauer in the finale of the first “Ultimate Fighter” season, while Ben Saunders (7-0-2) beat Dan Barrera in a decision in the sixth season of the show. Swick is the UFC betting favorite at -225 in this in this welterweight bout, and he’ll be going for the knockout, but Saunders is a well-rounded fighter who can strike as well as go to the ground. An UFC betting upset isn’t out of the question in this fight.

UFC 98 Preview

UFC 98 features an undefeated champ and an undefeated challenger, someone is going home with a loss.  The UFC originally wanted the light-weight championship match to headline UFC 100 but after Frank Mir had to delay his bout with Brock Lesnar, Evans and Machida was pushed up to the May 23^rd show.

The Show also features a fantastic grudge match, Matt Hughes vs. Matt Serra, as well as a couple of UFC 97 fighters jumping back in the cage and lots of replacements. This card has been rearranged several times because of fighters dropping out with injuries.

Let’s have a look at the odds and how each match should play out. 

The Odds are courtesy of our good friends at 5Dimes.com 

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UFC 97 happens April 18 in Montreal, the card features the best pound for pound fighter on the planet and a lot of Canadians. It’s not the best card we’ve seen but there are enough fights of interest to make it worth watching. Here are my picks for the fight, bet them if you wish. I will update this post a little later in the week with the most current UFC fight odds.

Anderson “Spider” Silva vs. Thales Leites
Anderson Silva has run through every fighter the UFC has put in front of him. He hasn’t lost cleanly (Silva was disqualified in 2006) since 2004.  His last was to a Ryo Chonan who is coincidentally on the undercard for UFC 97.  I don’t see Thales Leites putting up much resistance against the Spider. Thales Leites has padded his record with some unspectacular wins over Pete Sell, Drew McFedries and a suspect win over Nate Marquardt who had points deducted twice for dubious illegal strikes. Read more