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MLB Game Preview for September 1, 2010: Chicago White Sox @ Cleveland Indians

August 31st, 2010

Manny Ramirez is the MLB equivalent of the NFL’s Brett Favre Circus. Everywhere Manny goes, chaos and sound bites follow. The betting world was not too surprised when the Chicago White Sox agreed to pick up the rest of Manny’s contract in a last minute move that plucked Manny out of Los Angeles and dropped him into Cleveland. The only question is whether or not the White Sox will regret it.

In Chicago, NFL betting and NCAA football betting are starting to take center stage. But if the White Sox can make another run towards the World Series, then the community will sit up and take notice. The MLB betting experts are not giving the White Sox much of a chance, even with Manny on board (or could that be because Manny is on board?). When the season started the White Sox had +2000 odds to win the World Series, and at this point in the season their odds are only up to +1500. The Yankees are still the odds-on favorites to win it all, and the White Sox may not have everything they need to get the job done.

The Cleveland Indians are left out of this year’s playoff talk. With all of the moves contending teams have made to improve their rosters and their chances at winning, the Indians were left to wallow in the basement of the AL Central. The Indians are 22 games out of first place in the division and 28 games out of the AL wild card berth. The Indians have lost seven of their last 10 games, and they have more than hung up the white flag on the 2010 season. They have draped themselves in the white flag and wear it to every game.

This game will be interesting because it will be Manny’s first game as a member of the White Sox, and he will be facing one of his old teams in the Cleveland Indians. The White Sox are expecting instant results from Manny, so he will need to step up and produce. In Manny’s last MLB at bat he was ejected after the first pitch for arguing balls and strikes. That move is what got him put on a plane and sent to Chicago.

To help lock this game down the White Sox will send Freddy Garcia to the mound. Garcia has an 11-5 record and a 4.89 ERA on the season. Garcia’s career record in day games is 49-22, and his last start was a win over the New York Yankees.

Josh Tomlin starts for the Indians with a 2-3 record and a 4.08 ERA. He lacks control and has a difficult time striking batters out. Now that the White Sox batting line up has been strengthened by Manny Ramirez, the presence of Josh Tomlin on the mound is bad news for the Indians.

Manny Ramirez won’t win any humanitarian or good sportsmanship awards, but the guy knows how to hit a baseball. If he can stifle the Manny Circus, he should be a great asset to the Chicago White Sox.

Pick: Chicago White Sox 5-1

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MLB Game Preview for August 25, 2010: Seattle Mariners @ Boston Red Sox

August 24th, 2010

For the first time in a long time the betting culture in Boston is starting to fade for the Red Sox, and it is only August. The New England Patriots and Boston College are starting to raise interest for NFL betting and college football betting as the Red Sox continue to trail in the standings. The Red Sox are five and a half games out of first place in the AL East and five and a half games out of the AL wild card berth. However, the Red Sox have been helping their own cause in recent games.

The Red Sox have won six of their last 10 games including a current three-game winning streak. But with all the good the Sox have done to improve their chances at a playoff berth, the pesky Tampa Bay Rays keep raining on Boston’s parade. The Rays have won eight of their last 10 games and that also includes a current three-game winning streak. All the Red Sox can do is keep on winning and hope that the Rays hit another slide like they did a month and a half ago.

The season is over for the Seattle Mariners. They are 21 and half games out of first place in the AL West, and about that far out in the AL wild card race as well. The only redeeming thing about the Mariners this season was, once again, Ichiro. Ichiro has been an all-star in all of his 10 MLB seasons including this one, and he is widely regarded as one of the best hitters in all of baseball.

The Mariners need to make a lot of changes if they want to win in 2011. Front office changes should include manager Daren Brown and could reach as high as general manager Jack Zduriencik. The Mariners have only had two winning seasons since 2003, and this one could be one of the worst finishes in years.

The Mariners lost the first game of this series 6-3 in the rain at Fenway Park. Defense destroyed the Mariners once again as Doug Fister gave up five earned runs in six innings pitched and the Mariners continue to make mistakes in the field. In the last seven days the Mariners pitching staff has amassed a 4.24 ERA to go along with a 3-3 record.

For this game the Mariners turn to veteran pitcher Felix Hernandez. Hernandez has a 9-10 record, but his 2.51 ERA is an indication of the Mariners inability to hit or field all season long. Hernandez can shut the Red Sox down, but the Mariners may not be able to take advantage of that.

The Red Sox put Jon Lester on the mound. Lester has a 13-8 record and a 3.26 ERA. Prior to his last start, Lester’s ERA was 2.80. But nine earned runs in only two innings pitched proved to be his shortest and worst performance in the majors, and it ballooned his ERA to 3.26. Lester is hoping to regain his composure and put the Red Sox on the minds of MLB betting experts.

Pick: Boston Red Sox 6-1

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MLB Game Preview For August 18, 2010: Texas Rangers @ Tampa Bay Rays

August 17th, 2010

The sports betting community is getting ready for the MLB playoffs as the top teams make their runs towards division pennants and wild card spots. Before NFL betting or NCAA football betting can consume the major sports centers of the country, there is still the issue of the World Series to be decided.

The Tampa Bay Rays have been in the hunt for the AL East pennant all season long. As the season starts to wind down, the Rays find themselves in a dogfight with the New York Yankees for the pennant with the Boston Red Sox sneaking up behind both teams. In the battle of the AL East it is the Rays who are putting together the critical wins at critical moments, and that is what brings a pennant to a MLB franchise.

The Rays have won three games in a row, including the first game of this series with the Texas Rangers. As the Yankees continue to lose to teams like the Detroit Tigers and the Red Sox head out west to take on the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim, the Rays are in a great spot to try and put some distance between themselves and the rest of the AL East.

The Rangers are running away with the AL West, but that does not mean they have nothing to play for. The Rangers have not made the playoffs since 1999, and they cannot afford to slack now. There is a lot to be said for momentum going into the playoffs, and the Rangers have been playing .500 ball in their last 10 games which will not get the job done.

The other problem for the Rangers is their road record. In order to win in the playoffs a team needs to win on the road. The Rangers’ road record this season is 28-27, and that is hardly the record of a team ready to make a move in the playoffs. The Rangers need to establish momentum and they do that by winning on the road.

The MLB betting experts have pretty much given the AL West to the Rangers, but the Rangers are using their pad in the division standings to try and find out what their pitching rotation will look like in the playoffs. Starter Rich Harden was placed on the disabled list, and for this game Derek Holland takes Harden’s spot on the rotation. Harden has a 2-1 record and a 4.19 ERA. Holland is a starter in AAA, but he has been in the bullpen while with the Rangers this season. This is only his fifth major league start, but the Rangers are hoping Holland shows the same control in the majors that he has in dominating hitters in AAA.

The Rays put the struggling James Shields on the mound for this game. Shields has a 10-11 record with a 4.98 ERA. He has not looked good in his last three starts, and I his last start against the Orioles he allowed three runs in the very first inning on his way to his 11th loss of the season.

The Rangers and Rays need this game, but starting pitching depth could be the story here.

Pick: Texas Rangers 4-2

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MLB Betting – Reds, Cardinals Wrap Up Huge NL Central Series

August 10th, 2010

Adam Wainwright would be an NCAA football betting favorite for the Heisman if he were a college football betting player, and the ace will get the start for St. Louis on Wednesday afternoon in Cincinnati, where they will conclude a three-game set with the Reds, who are holding onto the National League Central lead with all of their might.

Cardinals Reds Betting – Wednesday, August 11, 12:35 PM ET

Wainwright (16-6, 2.07) is coming off his fifth complete game of the season, a two-hit effort in a 7-0 shutout at Florida in which he struck out seven and walked three.  Wainwright is now second in the league in wins, WHIP, complete games and ERA, third in innings and fourth in strikeouts, but he doesn’t have that great of a record against the Reds.  The 28-year-old is 2-3 in 11 appearances against Cincinnati, including six starts, and he’s split a pair of starts against them in 2010, including a poor performance in Cincinnati back in May.  Those who are betting on NFL odds know that certain players have troubles against certain teams, and this seems to be the case with Wainwright and the Reds.

The Reds will counter with Bronson Arroyo (12-6, 3.83), who scattered five hits over seven scoreless innings of a 3-0 win at Chicago over the Cubs, striking out seven with just a single walk.  Arroyo hasn’t allowed an earned run in his last two starts, and he’s putting together one of his best seasons in the majors at 33 years old, seemingly rejuvenated by the young Cincinnati pitching staff.  Arroyo is 1-1 in three starts against the Cardinals this season with an ERA of 4.22, taking his career mark against them to 7-9 in 25 games (23 starts) with an ERA of 4.49.

The MLB betting lines for this game will be close, but the Reds will probably be favored because despite Wainwright’s powerful performance in Florida, he’s only been subpar on the road this season, going 5-6 in 12 starts with a 3.00 ERA.  Arroyo is 5-3 in 11 home starts with a 4.17 ERA, and hasn’t allowed a run yet this month, although Wainwright has given up just one.  This should be a relatively low-scoring game thanks to the strength of the pitchers, and the batters may be gripping the bat just a bit tighter because of the pressure by the pitchers, not to mention the pressure of the playoff race between the Reds and Cardinals.  Cincinnati had just a one-game lead heading into Tuesday’s game, so this could be for the lead, and we’re willing to give the nod to Wainwright, who is a brilliant 8-0 in nine day games in 2010.

Bet on sports: St. Louis

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Yankees Trying To Keep Pace In AL East

August 3rd, 2010

MLB Betting – Toronto Blue Jays @ New York Yankees

Shawn Marcum (10-4) vs. Phil Hughes (12-4)

Marcum vs. Yankee Hitting

The de facto ace of the Blue Jays, Marcum has been the pitching leader on a surprisingly competitive Blue Jays team. Marcum has won three straight games, not allowing more than two runs in any start. His last start may have been his best of the season; eight innings against Cleveland, allowing just one run on three hits and striking out 10. Marcum is a key figure in the Blue Jays rise back to respectability.

However, that rise may be halted against the Yankees. Marcum has little success against New York in his past, going 1-3 with a 6.39 ERA in eight starts against the Yankees. If you’re betting online, put money on the possibility of Jorge Posada having a big game. The catcher has Marcum figured out, going 7-for-15 (.467) with four home runs against the righty. Otherwise, it’s just another incredibly potent offense that got even better with the acquisition of Lance Berkman over the weekend.

Hughes vs. Blue Jays Hitting

Phil Hughes’ 12-4 record is impressive, but his 4.07 ERA is beginning to cause concern. Hughes has been blessed with loads of run support this season, and it has somewhat masked a string of sub-par pitching by the righty. In his last six starts, Hughes is 2-3 with a 6.17 ERA. Part of the problem could be exhaustion. Hughes is up to 117 IP this year, when last year he topped off at 86. He may just not be physically ready for a full MLB season just yet.

The Blue Jays have a very effective (and very surprising offense). Jose Bautista leads the league in home runs, Vernon Wells is experiencing a career resurgence, and even Aaron Hill is starting to hit the ball with consistency. Add in parts like John Buck, Yunel Escobar and a streaking Edwin Encarnacion and you have an offense that can give a struggling pitcher fits. Hughes has already experienced firsthand how good the Jays offense can be; in a start against Toronto earlier in the year, Hughes allowed five runs in six innings.

Bullpen Comparison

Outside of Mariano Rivera, the Yankee bullpen has a been a sub-par group all season. Joba Chamberlain (5.60 ERA) has failed as a set-up man, and the likes of David Robertson and Chad Gaudin haven’t fared much better. The ineffective bullpen is the reason why New York traded for Kerry Wood at the deadline. Wood isn’t necessarily lighting it up all season, but is a veteran arm and has been pitching very well as of late.

The Jays strong bullpen was expected to be picked apart at the deadline, but it was not to be. The trio of Kevin Gregg, Scott Downs and Jason Frasor all stayed in Toronto, although one or more could be gone if they clear waivers. The three give the Jays a strong foundation in the bullpen that also includes a strong workhorse in Shawn Camp (50 IP, 2.86 ERA). This group definetly has the edge over New York.

Outlook

Marcum’s career struggles against New York probably won’t subside in the hitter’s paradise known as Yankee Stadium. Although both teams have explosive offenses, I’m betting Marcum’s past problems will create more runs than Hughes’ recent struggles.

Pick: New York Yankees

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MLB Preview for July 28, 2010: Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim

July 27th, 2010

Most baseball experts were betting that the AL East would be a dogfight between the Boston Red Sox and the New York Yankees. The Red Sox pitching staff was touted to be every bit as effective as the Yankees, and no one was denying the bat power of the Red Sox. But just like betting on NFL games in the preseason, you never really know what you get until the teams take the field.

This season, the Red Sox pitching has been inconsistent and unreliable. Staff ace Josh Beckett has spent most of the season on the injury list, and no one in the staff has really been able to pick up the slack. When you get involved in NCAA football betting, you rarely bet on the team that has lost its star quarterback. When the Red Sox lost their star quarterback in Beckett, it seemed like the rest of the team just fell apart.

The Angels were expecting great things this season. But the Angels hopes were predicated on the Texas Rangers and Oakland A’s having lousy seasons. Right now the Texas Rangers lead the AL West by seven and a half games over the A’s and the Angels. The Angels just cannot win on the road, and when you cannot win on the road then you are not going to win your division.

In the AL there seems to be little doubt who the division winners will be in the AL East and the AL West. Boston is not going to win the East, and the Angels are not winning in the West. But that does not mean that the Red Sox are completely out of the MLB betting picture this season. The Red Sox trail the Tampa Bay Rays by five games in the AL Wild Card race, and the Red Sox have come back to take the Wild Card more than once in the past few seasons.

Why should the Red Sox Nation get excited about the prospects of a Wild Card berth? Because Beckett is back, and the season is not over. Josh Beckett takes the mound in this game and he brings a deceiving 1-1 record along with an inflated 6.66 ERA with him. Beckett had five strikeouts in five and two-thirds innings in his most recent start, which was his first back from his injury. He looked like the staff ace, and he looked to be ready to play.

The Angels will put Joel Pineiro on the mound for this game. The breaking ball pitcher is 10-7 this season and that includes a seven game winning streak that the Yankees broke in his last start. Pineiro has a 4.18 ERA this season, which is excellent for a breaking ball pitcher and shows that he veteran still has the control he needs to win.

The Boston Red Sox are a fast ball hitting team. They have had problems hitting breaking ball pitchers for years. However, this season the Red Sox bats seem to be able to strike at any moment, and if Pineiro leaves his breaking balls out over the plate like he did against the Yankees then he could be in for another long night.

Pick: Boston Red Sox 4-2

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Phenom Takes On Best Of NL Central

July 20th, 2010

MLB Betting – Washington Nationals @ Cincinnati Reds

Stephen Strasburg (4-2) vs. Bronson Arroyo (10-4)

Strasburg vs. Reds Hitting

The Washington phenom continues to live up to the hype. In his last start Strasburg threw six shutout innings against the Marlins, striking out seven and allowing only four hits. It was the first time all season Strasburg didn’t give up a run in a start. The circus surrounding Strasburg seems to have slowed down, a welcome change of media pace that will only help the kid stay calm. A cap on his 2010 innings has forced Strasburg to usually only pitch six innings, meaning teams have a much better chance of winning if they’re patient for the bullpen instead of trying to beat Strasburg.

The team that must be patient this time, the Cincinnati Reds, are a surprise atop the NL Central. The offense is led by MVP-candidate Joey Votto, the all-star snub who is enjoying a career year (.307 BA, 22 HR, 60 RBI). Jay Bruce, Johnny Gomes and Brandon Phillips provide a solid backup crew. Scott Rolen has also been a beast at the plate, but will most likely miss the game against Strasburg. Rolen has been nursing a hamstring injury and hasn’t played since the break. If you’re betting, consider that good news for the Nationals.

Arroyo vs. Nationals Hitting

The veteran ace of the Reds rotation, Arroyo is enjoying a nice little year. He’s pitched exceptionally strong as of late, going 5-1 in his last six outings, allowing more than two runs in a start just once. His ERA has dropped considerably since early June, and he seems to be hitting his stride as the season goes on. Arroyo has faced the Nationals already once this year with spectacular results. The right-hander lasted eight innings and only gave up two runs while striking out five.

Like most years, the bulk of the offense on Washington has fallen to Adam Dunn and Ryan Zimmerman. Dunn (22 HR, 59 RBI) has been the subject of many trade talks, but that hasn’t seemed to slow him down at all. As for Zimmerman (16 HR, 48 RBI), he’s just as offensively sound as anyone. Since no one on the team is batting over .300, the Nationals’ run source comes mainly from the power hitters. If Arroyo can effectively shut down the team of Dunn and Zimmerman, victory will be much easier to obtain.

Bullpen Comparison

The Nationals bullpen has some brilliant talent, and since all of them are young, there is potential to be even greater. Matt Capps has 23 saves and has a 3.10 ERA in over 40 innings pitched. Tyler Clippard leads all MLB relievers with 8 wins and has pitched an astounding 53 innings. Drew Storen is a former first round pick and has blossomed in his role as a set-up guy.

All-Star Arthur Rhodes is the best reliever in a generally O.K. Bullpen. The big lefty has revitalized his career in Cinncy, sporting a minuscule 1.46 ERA in 37 IP. No other reliever comes close to that ERA, as none sport a number under 3.75. Closer Francisco Cordero get a lot of save opportunities, and has converted 25 of them; he has blown six and has 4.01 ERA.

Outlook

It’s hard to pick against Strasburg, especially since he’s been pitching so well as of late. The Reds, although definite NL Central contenders, have been slipping as of late. I’m betting the kid gets another notch in his belt after this one.

Pick: Washington Nationals

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Handing Out Midseason Awards To Baseball’s Best

July 13th, 2010

Before college football betting starts to warm up, let’s check out who were the stars of the first half of the MLB season, and get ready for an exciting second half.

American League

MVP – Miguel Cabrera, Detroit

Texas teammates Josh Hamilton and Vladdy Guerrero come close, but Cabrera doesn’t have another bonafide slugger in the lineup to help him out.  Cabrera leads the AL in average and RBIs, and he’s tied with Hamilton for second in homers….and he just turned 27 in April.

Cy Young – David Price, Tampa Bay

This would be the NFL football betting equivalent of Aaron Rodgers beating out Brett Favre and Peyton Manning for the MVP award, as the young Price gets the nod over New York teammates C.C. Sabathia and Andy Pettitte.  Price is tied for the AL lead in wins with Sabathia, while leading in ERA.

Manager Of The Half-Year – Joe Maddon, Tampa Bay

Boston’s Terry Francona, as well as all the division leaders, deserve a mention, but Maddon has done a wonderful job of getting this young and insanely talented team back on track after last year’s disappointment. 

Rookie Of The Half-Year – Brennan Boesch, Detroit

The 25-year-old is fourth in the league in average, second among rookies in OBP, and first in homers, RBIs and slugging.  Boesch is quickly becoming the Robin to Cabrera’s Batman in the Motor City.

National League

MVP – Albert Pujols, St. Louis

Listen to this: 10th in average, second in OBP, third in slugging, tied for second in homers and fourth in RBIs.  Does that sound like an “off” year to you?  Well, it is by “King” Albert’s standards, and all this means is that the gap this year has closed on him.  But he’s still the best.

Cy Young – Ubaldo Jimenez, Colorado

If he keeps this up, and the Rockies make the playoffs, Jimenez may be MVP.  He leads the majors in wins, and he’s fifth in the NL in ERA.  Seriously, if he can get to 25 wins, Jimenez is in the MLB betting conversation for MVP.

Manager Of The Half-Year – Dusty Baker, Cincinnati

Atlanta’s Bobby Cox could get it, as he’s retiring and his Braves are rolling through the East, and he has four of these things already.  San Diego’s Bud Black doesn’t have one, but can he hold onto Adrian Gonzalez for the rest of the season?  Baker gets it because no one in the baseball world expected the Reds to be anywhere near first in the Central this year.

Rookie Of The Half-Year – Jason Heyward, Atlanta

Chicago’s Tyler Colvin and New York’s Ike Davis gets a mention, but Heyward is living up to all the hype in Atlanta, playing for a first-place team.  His wrist should be healthy enough to come back after the break to resume his assault, and Heyward may be the safest online betting pick in this list.

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