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MLB Game Preview: World Series Game One: Texas Rangers (-123) @ San Francisco Giants (+118)

October 26th, 2010

The sports betting world probably never saw this coming. While some were focusing on NFL betting, others were starting to see something in the Texas Rangers that said this team could make the playoffs. When the Rangers brought in pitcher Cliff Lee from the Astros at the trade deadline things really started looking up for the Rangers. The extent to which Texas’ fortunes would improve were still to be seen.

The San Francisco Giants did not dazzle anyone on their way to the 2010 World Series. Most of the MLB betting experts had the Giants as tremendous underdogs to the Philadelphia Phillies in the NLCS. It took the Giants four out of five games to beat the Atlanta Braves in their NLDS series, and it took them six out of seven games to beat the Phillies in the NLCS. The only time the Giants are really overpowering is when Tim Lincecum is pitching. Otherwise they are just a solid baseball team that plays good fundamentals.

The Rangers also took their time beating the two best teams in the AL on the way to the World Series. The Rangers needed all five games of the ALDS to beat the Tampa Bay Rays, and then the Rangers needed six games to beat the Yankees. Along the way, the Rangers showed that they fear no starting pitcher and that no lead is safe with any reliever in the league. The Rangers won games outright with a complete game from Cliff Lee or a save, or the Rangers were able to battle back from being down to win games in the later innings. Texas was able to do it all, and now they are playing in their first World Series ever.

When you think about how the Rangers got this far, it is really not a surprise. Legendary pitcher and former Texas Rangers ace, Nolan Ryan, has brought a completely new attitude to the team. Ryan knows that you Northet review win ball games with overpowering pitching and talented hitters. Fielding is also important because with the way that Ryan teaches pitching, there are a lot of infield ground balls. Ryan went out and built what he felt was a championship caliber team. As soon as it became apparent that Cliff Lee was available, Ryan went after him and got him. Lee became the final piece in Ryan’s World Series puzzle.

The World Series betting lines are following that pattern that the baseball betting lines have had all playoffs. The Giants are the underdog in their own building. Game one of the 2010 World Series has the potential to be one of the best pitching battles ever seen. Lincecum starts for the Giants and Lee for the Rangers. But the Rangers have shown the ability to rattle the other team’s ace all playoff long. As long as the Rangers keep rattling the aces, they are going to be the favorite to win the World Series.

Pick: Texas Rangers 4-1

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MLB ALCS Game Preview: Game Five: Texas Rangers @ New York Yankees

October 19th, 2010

Not many people were betting that the Texas Rangers would give a rough ride to New York Yankees ace C.C. Sabathia in game one of the ALCS. The Rangers ran up five runs in that opening game, and the Yankees had to use offense to storm back and win a game they were expecting to win with pitching.

As the NFL betting continued for week six in the NFL season, the Yankees were faced with the Rangers’ ace Cliff Lee in game three of the ALCS. The Yankees had no answer for Lee and, in the new Yankee Stadium, the Rangers embarrassed the Yankees 8-0. The Yankees could not even come close to scoring runs on Lee and the Yankees at least had the sense not to bring in Mariano Rivera to try and get some innings in when it really didn’t matter.

The World Series betting when the season started had the Yankees breezing through the AL playoffs on their way to winning the World Series. At this point the Yankees are still the odds-on favorites to win the World Series at +175 with the Rangers having the worst World Series odds at +400. But in order for the Yankees to make good on the preseason hype, they first need to get past the Rangers. That is proving to be significantly more difficult than originally expected.

The Yankess did exactly what they wanted to do in game one; they scored a lot of runs. But the Yankees did not start pouring on the runs until C.C. Sabathia was already five runs down and out of the game. It was a position the Yankees did not expect to be in, and it was obvious by the way they played that they did not expect the Rangers to tag Sabathia like that.

Now the series rolls towards game five, and there is a good chance that the C.C. Sabathia versus C.J. Wilson battle of game one will be repeated. The Rangers go into this game with significantly more confidence than they had when the series started. None of the Rangers would say it, but the team may have doubted that the scores they could put up against Sabathia would be enough to win game one. When the game was over, the Rangers could not wait to do this match-up again and make things right.

One pitcher that will probably not be seeing any action in Northbet game five is reliever Darren Oliver. Oliver came in to game one when the Rangers were up 5-3 and promptly gave up two runs to two batters and was pulled without ever recording an out. In game two, Oliver threw to one batter and walked him. In game three, Oliver never made it on to the field.

The Rangers are learning a lot as this series moves along. They are learning that they can hit the Yankees’ best pitchers, and they are learning that their pitching staff can keep the Yankees at bay when needed. The more the Rangers learn, the worse things seem to get for the Yankees.

Pick: Texas Rangers 4-1

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MLB Game Preview: ALDS Game One: New York Yankees @ Minnesota Twins

October 5th, 2010

Now that the baseball playoffs have begun, the sports wagering sites will be filled with NFL betting and MLB betting action. The New York Yankees are the beneficiaries, and the victims, of the baseball wild card set up. Without the wild card, the Yankees would have not made the playoffs. The Yankees have a better record than the Twins, but because the Twins are division winners and the Yankees are the wild card, the Twins get home field advantage in this series.

Back in the 1980’s, home field advantage for the Twins was fairly significant because it meant playing in the dome affectionately called the “Homer Dome”. It was the white balloon that made it impossible to see fly balls, and could carry a single all the way over the fence if you caught the right breeze. The Twins had all season to figure out the dome, and they used it to their advantage. Now that the Twins play in the outdoor stadium Target Field, there is no more “Homer Dome” advantage. That could prove to be a very bad thing for the Minnesota Twins.

More than likely, the Twins will turn to starting pitcher Francisco Liriano to get this series going on the mound. Liriano finished the season with a 14-10 record and a 3.62 ERA. Liriano has struggled in his last three starts as he has gone 0-3 and given up 12 earned runs. He has not beaten the Yankees yet this season. Liriano has two starts against the Yankees and has posted a 0-1 record.

The Yankees possess a lot of power at the plate. In the 2010 season, the Yankees have hit 201 home runs and have scored 859 runs. No one in the AL scored more runs than the Yankees this Northbet season, and the Twins only hit 142 homers this year. At the plate, the Yankees have a distinct advantage.

The advantage for the Yankees extends to the mound as well as the Bronx Bombers will be putting their ace C.C. Sabathia on the mound for the first game of this series. Sabathia finished the 2010 season with a brilliant record of 21-7 and an ERA of 3.18. The only thing that may be working to the advantage of the Twins is that Sabathia has not faced them yet this season so he does not have a feel for their hitting roster. Sabathia has decisions in nine of his last 10 starts and only two of those are losses.

The sportsbook review on this series has the advantage going to the Yankees. Even with the home field advantage, the Twins are not coming in to this series with a whole lot of momentum. Without the help of the “Homer Dome”, it is unlikely that the Twins will be able to out-hit the Yankees. With pitchers like C.C. Sabathia and Phil Hughes on the mound for the Yankees, the Twins are unlikely to able to out-pitch the Yankees either.

Pick: New York Yankees 4-2

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Rockies Holding On For Dear Life

September 28th, 2010

MLB Betting – Los Angeles Dodgers @ Colorado Rockies

Clayton Kershaw vs. Jhoulys Chacin (9-10)

Kershaw vs. Rockies Hitting

Kershaw has been playing some of his best baseball of the season over the past month and a half. His record (3-3) may not show it, but when’s the last time a win/loss record accurately portrayed how well a pitcher has been throwing? In his last eight starts, Kershaw has given up more than two runs only twice (one game of three runs, one game of four). In that span he’s thrown his first career complete game shutout, and four times has gone at least seven innings and allowed one run or less. His last start he went eight innings, allowing one run and striking out nine.

Playing in the same division as the Rockies, Kershaw has had his fair share of outing against Colorado. In 13 starts, the lefty has gone 5-3 with a 3.63 ERA. If you bet on MLB, your eyes will be glued to the game when Kershaw faces the Rockies’ dynamic duo of Carlos Gonzalez and Troy Tulowitzki. Each are legit MVP candidates, and each have been on fire in the month of September. But unlike every other pitcher in the league, Kershaw has been very successful against the duo: Car-Go and Tulo are a combined 7-for-48 (.146) with 3 RBI’s against the Dodger ace.

Chacin vs. Dodgers Hitting

If you’re into online betting, you’ll know over the past month Jhoulys Chacin has been a pitching machine. In his past seven starts, Chacin has yet to give up more than two runs in a start, going at least five innings in all but one. His best start of the streak was his most recent one, which ironically is the only one that’s been recorded as a loss for the righty. Chacin pitched seven innings and allowed two runs on just three hits, striking out eight.

Chacin pitched against the Dodgers during his current hot-streak, and it was an incredibly impressive start. Chacin allowed zero runs over eight innings pitched, allowing nine hits and striking out two. The Dodger offense, especially now in the final week of the season, has hit a stagnant; in the past seven games they’ve scored more than three runs only twice.

Bullpen Comparison

As much as a disappointment Jonathon Broxton has been this season (and he has been, with seven blown saves in 29 chances and an ERA that’s almost at 4.00), Hong-Chih Kuo has been just as much as a revelation. The Taiwanese lefthander has been virtually unhittable all season, and his 1.26 ERA and 0.77 WHIP would agree. He’s actually taken over the closer role for Broxton in the second half, and should give the veteran a run for his money for next year’s spot.

An underwhelming bullpen may be the downfall of the Rockies. Outside of Matt Belisle (2.96 ERA), no regular reliever on the squad has an ERA under 3.50. Manny Delcarmen, who they picked up for the stretch run, has an 8.53 ERA in seven appearances. You want a reason why Colorado is falling out of the postseason chase? The bullpen is partially the answer.

Outlook

It must feel good for the Dodgers knowing that they can eliminate a division rival from the playoffs. Colorado had a chance until last week when they lost five of six against Arizona and San Francisco. The Rockies are in a tailspin and Los Angeles is pouncing. And since Kershaw is seemingly the only pitcher in the league who can stop Gonzalez and Tulowitzki, I’m betting the Rockies time will soon be out.

MLB Betting Pick: Los Angeles Dodgers

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MLB Game Preview for September 22, 2010: Tampa Bay Rays @ New York Yankees

September 21st, 2010

The sports betting on the AL East pennant has been rocking back and forth all season long. For months the Tampa Bay Rays held on to first place and, at one point, it looked like the New York Yankees were not going to be able to catch the Rays. As NCAA football betting got started in late summer, the Rays started to falter and the Yankees began picking up the pace. Now we have a real race on our hands for the AL East pennant.

The schedule makers in MLB must have known something that the MLB betting world did not know. Late season series for the AL East pennant are normally reserved for the New York Yankees and the Boston Red Sox. This season, the Red Sox have fallen out of contention for the pennant and the AL wild card spot. The Rays are the team giving the Yankees the problems, and it is the Rays the Yankees keep running into late into the season.

Going into this game the Yankees lead the Rays by a game and a half, but neither team has been playing very well lately. The Yankees have lost six of their last 10 games while the Rays are on a two-game losing streak. The Yankees did manage to win the first game of this series, and that is why the gap is a game and a half in the AL East. The sportsbook reviews of the Yankees and Rays going into this game indicate that the Rays may be losing their grip on the AL East pennant and may have to settle for the AL wild card.

Wade Davis takes the mound for the Rays in this game. This season Davis has a 12-9 record with a 4.19 ERA. Davis is the perfect pitcher for the Rays to close out this series against the Yankees. The Rays pitcher is on a seven-game winning streak and threw eight strike outs in his last outing which was a no decision against the Angels. He is 2-1 this season against the Yankees.

The Yankees put the struggling A.J. Burnett on the mound for this game. Burnett is 10-13 this season with a 5.08 ERA. In his last start, against the Orioles, Burnett gave up three earned runs in seven innings. He has not shown much improvement as the season has progressed. His ERA in the month of September is 4.50, and while that helped to bring down his season ERA to 5.08 it is still extremely high for a pitcher in the Yankee starting rotation.

The Yankees and Rays have been hitting well off of each other all season long. The team that can get some decent pitching will have the upper hand in this game. Unfortunately for the Yankees, the pitching advantage in this game goes to the Rays and Wade Davis. If Davis can carry the Rays into the seventh inning with a lead, then the Yankees could be in a lot of trouble.

Pick: Tampa Bay Rays 4-1

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Halladay Continues Cy Young Bid

September 15th, 2010

MLB Betting – Philadelphia Phillies @ Florida Marlins

Roy Halladay (18-10) vs. Alex Sanabia (4-2)

Halladay vs. Marlins Hitting

There’s not much more to say about Roy Halladay. Doc leads the NL in wins and leads the league in innings pitched and complete games. His durability is the stuff of legends. Halladay has gone at least seven innings in 16 straight games, including three complete games. He’s 8-2 in his last 10 games. He strikes out a lot of batters (201 this season), and walks virtually no one (only 28 so far). He has a 2.44 ERA and 1.05 WHIP. Numbers alone don’t do him justice, but it’s quite helpful in showcasing just how dominant he is.

Those who bet on MLB know how great Doc is against the Marlins. It was against Florida that Halladay pitched his perfect game earlier in the season. He’s 3-1 against the Fish this season; in his two non-perfect wins Halladay has pitched 15 innings and allowed only three runs. Even when he loses he pitches amazingly. In his lone loss versus Florida, Doc pitched eight innings and allowed only one run. He owns this team, and he only loses if his opposing pitcher owns the Phillies offense as well.

Sanabia vs. Phillies Hitting

Alex Sanabia, in his first season in the bigs, is hoping to solve his recent inconsistencies. One game he’s allowing seven runs in two innings, in another he’s throwing seven innings of shutout ball. With the Marlins season pretty much over, Sanabia is pitching for a job next season and he’s doing a pretty good job (save for the aforementioned inconsistencies). He’s hoping the rest of the season is more like his most recent start. Sanabia pitched 6 2/3 shutout innings, allowing just three hits.

Sanabia hasn’t faced the Phillies this season, giving him the advantage against a very strong Phillies offense. Ryan Howard is his usual dominating self, with 29 home runs and 99 RBI’s. Chase Utley and Jayson Werth are still dangerous, despite less-than-career years this season. Jimmy Rollins has struggled this season and is currently injured, but this is still a very potent offense and I’m betting it can give any pitcher (especially a rookie pitcher) a rough outing.

Bullpen Comparison

If the Phillies have a weakness this season, it’s their bullpen. Nobody has come out of the ‘pen and dominated this season, and Ryan Madsen is the only regular with an ERA under 3.00. It hasn’t prevented the Phillies from hanging atop the NL East, but that weakness could come back to haunt them as the season comes to a close.

Florida’s bullpen hasn’t been fantastic, but it’s been slightly better than the Phillies. Clay Hensley is the workhorse (67 IP) and has a 2.42 ERA as well. Brian Sanches has over 50 IP and an under 3.00 ERA as well. In fact, nobody who has pitched over 40 innings has an ERA over 4.00, although most are in the high three’s. Good, but not great.

Outlook

With Halladay’s history against the Marlins, it’s hard to pick against him. With a rookie pitcher against the Phillies offense, it’s hard to pick against Philadelphia. I’m betting Halladay, with or without the help of his offense, continues his bid for his second career Cy Young.

MLB Betting Pick: Philadelphia Phillies

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MLB Game Preview for September 1, 2010: Chicago White Sox @ Cleveland Indians

August 31st, 2010

Manny Ramirez is the MLB equivalent of the NFL’s Brett Favre Circus. Everywhere Manny goes, chaos and sound bites follow. The betting world was not too surprised when the Chicago White Sox agreed to pick up the rest of Manny’s contract in a last minute move that plucked Manny out of Los Angeles and dropped him into Cleveland. The only question is whether or not the White Sox will regret it.

In Chicago, NFL betting and NCAA football betting are starting to take center stage. But if the White Sox can make another run towards the World Series, then the community will sit up and take notice. The MLB betting experts are not giving the White Sox much of a chance, even with Manny on board (or could that be because Manny is on board?). When the season started the White Sox had +2000 odds to win the World Series, and at this point in the season their odds are only up to +1500. The Yankees are still the odds-on favorites to win it all, and the White Sox may not have everything they need to get the job done.

The Cleveland Indians are left out of this year’s playoff talk. With all of the moves contending teams have made to improve their rosters and their chances at winning, the Indians were left to wallow in the basement of the AL Central. The Indians are 22 games out of first place in the division and 28 games out of the AL wild card berth. The Indians have lost seven of their last 10 games, and they have more than hung up the white flag on the 2010 season. They have draped themselves in the white flag and wear it to every game.

This game will be interesting because it will be Manny’s first game as a member of the White Sox, and he will be facing one of his old teams in the Cleveland Indians. The White Sox are expecting instant results from Manny, so he will need to step up and produce. In Manny’s last MLB at bat he was ejected after the first pitch for arguing balls and strikes. That move is what got him put on a plane and sent to Chicago.

To help lock this game down the White Sox will send Freddy Garcia to the mound. Garcia has an 11-5 record and a 4.89 ERA on the season. Garcia’s career record in day games is 49-22, and his last start was a win over the New York Yankees.

Josh Tomlin starts for the Indians with a 2-3 record and a 4.08 ERA. He lacks control and has a difficult time striking batters out. Now that the White Sox batting line up has been strengthened by Manny Ramirez, the presence of Josh Tomlin on the mound is bad news for the Indians.

Manny Ramirez won’t win any humanitarian or good sportsmanship awards, but the guy knows how to hit a baseball. If he can stifle the Manny Circus, he should be a great asset to the Chicago White Sox.

Pick: Chicago White Sox 5-1

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MLB Game Preview for August 25, 2010: Seattle Mariners @ Boston Red Sox

August 24th, 2010

For the first time in a long time the betting culture in Boston is starting to fade for the Red Sox, and it is only August. The New England Patriots and Boston College are starting to raise interest for NFL betting and college football betting as the Red Sox continue to trail in the standings. The Red Sox are five and a half games out of first place in the AL East and five and a half games out of the AL wild card berth. However, the Red Sox have been helping their own cause in recent games.

The Red Sox have won six of their last 10 games including a current three-game winning streak. But with all the good the Sox have done to improve their chances at a playoff berth, the pesky Tampa Bay Rays keep raining on Boston’s parade. The Rays have won eight of their last 10 games and that also includes a current three-game winning streak. All the Red Sox can do is keep on winning and hope that the Rays hit another slide like they did a month and a half ago.

The season is over for the Seattle Mariners. They are 21 and half games out of first place in the AL West, and about that far out in the AL wild card race as well. The only redeeming thing about the Mariners this season was, once again, Ichiro. Ichiro has been an all-star in all of his 10 MLB seasons including this one, and he is widely regarded as one of the best hitters in all of baseball.

The Mariners need to make a lot of changes if they want to win in 2011. Front office changes should include manager Daren Brown and could reach as high as general manager Jack Zduriencik. The Mariners have only had two winning seasons since 2003, and this one could be one of the worst finishes in years.

The Mariners lost the first game of this series 6-3 in the rain at Fenway Park. Defense destroyed the Mariners once again as Doug Fister gave up five earned runs in six innings pitched and the Mariners continue to make mistakes in the field. In the last seven days the Mariners pitching staff has amassed a 4.24 ERA to go along with a 3-3 record.

For this game the Mariners turn to veteran pitcher Felix Hernandez. Hernandez has a 9-10 record, but his 2.51 ERA is an indication of the Mariners inability to hit or field all season long. Hernandez can shut the Red Sox down, but the Mariners may not be able to take advantage of that.

The Red Sox put Jon Lester on the mound. Lester has a 13-8 record and a 3.26 ERA. Prior to his last start, Lester’s ERA was 2.80. But nine earned runs in only two innings pitched proved to be his shortest and worst performance in the majors, and it ballooned his ERA to 3.26. Lester is hoping to regain his composure and put the Red Sox on the minds of MLB betting experts.

Pick: Boston Red Sox 6-1

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