UFC 106 doesn’t give sports betting fans a title fight to wager on but it does offer some very even matchups that make for fun yet difficult choices. For the welterweight clash between Josh Koscheck and Anthony “Rumble” Johnson in particular, bettors are almost split down the middle. Here’s a preview and pick to help you with your decision.

Josh Koscheck (13-4) vs Anthony Johnson (8-2)
Sportsbook odds: Koscheck -105, Johnson -125

Josh Koscheck and Anthony Johnson probably have a few guys in their way before they can top the welterweight contender ladder — Dan Hardy, Jon Fitch and Thiago Alves — but they’re fearsome up-and-comers in the division. Both guys can be classified as next-generation mixed martial artists in that they’re athletes who absorb new skills like sponges.

Koscheck in particular has improved dramatically over the last few years. He was always a phenomenal wrestler and remains arguably a top-five wrestler in the entire UFC for any weight class. He’s become more dangerous over the years, however, by improving his kickboxing and developing some serious punching power. A well-rounded Koscheck has a better chance to contend for a title than he did a few years ago but his new skills sometimes hurt him too. He too frequently abandons his real strength — his wrestling — in favor of “showing” off his newfound striking ability. That cost him his fights with Thiago Alves and Paulo Thiago. It’s the equivalent to a good rushing team in NFL betting getting caught up in a passing shootout.

Anthony Johnson is likely crossing his fingers hoping that Koscheck wants to stand and trade with him. The reason: Johnson is an absolute killer. He’s 6’2″ and reportedly walks around as heavy as 220 pounds when he’s not training, so the fact that he’s fighting at 170 pounds is almost unfair. He’s an imposing physical presence with devastating knockout power. He doesn’t pound out TKOs with flurries — he can floor an opponent with a single punch or head kick. On the feet, Johnson has an advantage. On the ground, he does have a wrestling background but he’s largely untested in the UFC. Online betting fans have to think Koscheck has the advantage on the canvas, though Johnson at the very least will be hard to hold down.

Sports picks choice: Johnson -125. Koscheck can absolutely win this fight if he plays it smart and goes for the takedown, but he’s fallen in love with the striking game too much. The longer he stays standing with Johnson, the more likely he is to have his head taken off. Pick Johnson but understand that this fight could really go either way.

As the best teams in NFL betting start butting heads in the preseason, some of the UFC’s top contending fighters a prepare for battle at UFC 102 next weekend. Though the card has no title fights, some highly ranked warriors will try to inch closer to a title shot. Let’s have a look at Keith Jardine and Thiago Silva, both of whom are fresh off losses to light heavyweight superstars.

Keith “The Dean of Mean” Jardine
Record: 14-5-1
Notable victories: Forrest Griffin, Chuck Liddell
UFC 102 odds: -160

STRENGTHS: Jardine is a clever fighter with an extremely unorthodox stance and “off” timing that confuses opponents. He specializes in big kicks; he can knock opponents out with head blows or slow them down with leg shots, as he did Chuck Liddell. He’s no ground master but he’s good enough to hang with Thiago Silva on the canvas.

WEAKNESSES: Jardine succeeds against counter punchers because he takes the space they give him, but he seriously struggles against aggressive fighters who walk forward. Wanderlei Silva and Houston Alexander overwhelmed and obliterated Jardine in under a minute. Thiago Silva is exactly the type of fighter who gives Jardine trouble.

Thiago Silva
Record: 13-1
Notable victories: Houston Alexander, James Irvin
UFC 102 odds: +130

STRENGTHS: Few light heavyweights can match Silva’s finishing ability. Only one of his 13 wins went to a decision and he’s knocked 10 opponents. His Muay Thai has honed him into a deadly striker who can drop guys with his hands, feet or knees. He’s respectable on the ground, having submitted a pair of fighters.

WEAKNESSES: Silva may not be the smartest fighter out there, as his aggressive style often leaves him open to big shots. If he’s not careful, he could get caught with a head kick from Jardine.

Daily sports pick: Thiago Silva +130. As long as he follows fellow Chute boxer Wanderlei Silva’s strategy and smothers Jardine early, he should score a highlight-reel knockout. I’m surprised he’s not the favored by betting services.

UFC 101 Betting – Handicapping Kenny Florian as an Underdog

The UFC 101 odds are upon us, and many bettors have tough decisions to make. The main events feature two big-name underdogs who are used to being favorites: Kenny Florian and Forrest Griffin. Fight fans are having trouble figuring out which dog is a legit pick and which is just a money trap. Let’s start by examining Kenny Florian’s chances against the BJ “The Prodigy” Penn.

KENNY FLORIAN (13-3) +180 to beat BJ Penn

Florian is currently the +180 dog, but don’t be surprised if the lines even out a bit next week, as his lightweight title bout against Penn should be one of the closest in recent UFC memory. Both fighters are confident, versatile and intelligent, so it’s hard to imagine one dominating the other.

Is Penn a justifiable favorite? Yes. When he fights at lightweight, his fitness and commitment issues disappear, as he has to work his butt off to make weight. The lightweight BJ is the most dominant BJ, as he’s quick, reasonably big for the weight class and able to use his flexibility to control opponents on the ground and set up submissions.

However, if you’re the type who chases betting underdogs, Kenny Florian is a legitimate choice. He has some matchup advantages over Penn that give him a serious chance to win. For one, he fought as high up as 185 pounds early in his UFC career, so Florian is at least Penn’s physical equal, size-wise. Secondly, he has the standup advantage. His boxing is outstanding and his Muay Thai clinch sets up devastating knees. Lastly, he may be the smarter fighter. Penn is smart, but more in an instinctual sense, just like Anderson Silva, whereas Florian is a student, like Georges St-Pierre. GSP beat Penn using a pre-set game plan and betting management experts should expect Florian to enter the Octagon with a planned strategy of his own. He’s a good underdog pick.

UFC 101 Odds – Handicapping the Secondary Fights

Chances are, you’ve started UFC 101 betting already and placed some wagers on Penn/Florian and Silva/Griffin. But what about the other fights on the card? They feature very few household names, but there’s still money to be won if you do your homework. We’re here to help you with that.

Amir Sadollah (1-0) vs Johnny Hendricks (5-0)
Offshore sportsbook odds: Sadollah -125, Hendricks -105

Finally, Ultimate Fighter 7 winner Amir Sadollah gets to fight in the Octagon again. He had two fights cancelled due to injury, the most recent due to a broken clavicle, but he’s finally ready to go. Though he’s still learning, Sadollah is a skilled ground fighter with strong Jiu-Jitsu. He can submit opponents, as he did C.B. Dollaway to win TUF at welterweight. His Sambo background also helps him take opponents to the ground and force them to fight his fight. His opponent, Johnny Hendricks, won’t be easy to face. Hendricks is a wrestler who also has good striking power for a welterweight, as evidenced by his three knockout victories. He’s a finisher who should test Sadollah’s chin with his boxing.

Sadollah is the favorite but he may be rusty; look for the slight underdog Hendricks to overpower Sadollah and bludgeon him with strikes en route to a victory.

Daily sports pick: Hendricks -105

Kendall Grove (12-5) vs Ricardo Almeida (10-3)
Offshore sportsbook odds: Grove +150, Almeida -180

He’re s possible upset pick for you. Ricardo Almeida is a solid submission artist and has scored wins over some good fighters, including Nate Marquardt. He’s well-versed in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu and wins most of his fights via various chokes. However, he’s not the most difficult matchup for Kendall Grove. Grove has a questionable chin and often gets knocked out by power punchers, but Almeida has zero knockout victories in his career. Against an equally skilled Jiu-Jitsu fighter, Almeida won’t have his usual advantage. Standing up, Grove isn’t an absolute killer but he has good Muay Thai and can finish opponents occasionally. It’s smart betting management to go with the more versatile Grove to pull off the upset.

Daily sports pick: Grove +150

Ultimate Fighter Betting

With sportsbook odds up for Saturday’s Klitchko/Chagaev fight and a free UFC card on Spike TV this Saturday, it’s a nice weekend to be a fight fan. The Ultimate Fighter finale pits the finalists of the U.S. vs U.K. season against each other, but the biggest fights of the night feature already established fighters, several of which won their seasons of The Ultimate Fighter.

Let’s make some picks for the Sanchez/Guida odds and Stevenson/Diaz odds, shall we?

Diego Sanchez (22-2) vs Clay Guida (25-6)

Ultimate Fighter odds: Sanchez -260, Guida +200

Unless Frankie Edgar snatches it, Diego “Nightmare” Sanchez could be one win away from a lightweight title shot against the winner of the Penn/Florian fight. An extremely intense fighter, he made a successful transition to lightweight in his last fight against Joe Stevenson, showcasing solid technical striking to accompany his already-strong ground grappling skills.

Sanchez faces the energetic fan favorite Clay “the Carpenter” Guida, known for his long hair and busy, smothering style. What he lacks in size and talent, he makes up in fitness and heart; he latches onto opponents and never lets go, often winning over judges because he controls the pace of his fights.

As likeable as Guida is, Sanchez is probably the most talented fighter he’s faced so far in his career. If you use handicapping software, it will break down the advantages in Sanchez’s favor everywhere. He’s a better striker and he’s stronger – remember, he once fought two weight classes higher. Don’t expect Guida to pull off the upset.

Daily sports pick: Diego Sanchez -260

Nate Diaz (10-3) vs Joe Stevenson (34-10)

Ultimate Fighter odds: Diaz -140, Stevenson +110

Can the enigmatic Diaz finally break through? He joins Sanchez and his opponent, Joe “Daddy” Stevenson, as Ultimate Fighter winners competing Saturday night. Diaz is a bit of a freak in the lightweight division because he’s six feet tall, giving him a huge reach advantage and making his Jiu-Jitsu game that much better. He’ll likely try to submit Stevenson, and that won’t be an easy task. Stevenson is a strong wrestler with great ground-and-pound and can also submit opponents with his trademark guillotine choke.

However, Stevenson is devolving when he should be evolving. He’s making a habit of losing important fights, as BJ Penn, Kenny Florian and Diego Sanchez all outclassed him. He has to stop trying to be a striker – he’s just not very good at it, perhaps because of his stumpy stature – and should focus on what he does best. There’s nothing to suggest he’ll change for this fight, so Diaz has the advantage in the online sports wagering.

Daily sports pick: Nate Diaz -140