Rory Gold

NFL betting fans have a very busy week ahead, with a triple header on Thanksgiving Thursday. Let’s get going with a Thursday football picks parlay.

12:30 p.m. ET – Green Bay Packers (-10.5) vs Detroit Lions

The Lions host a Thanksgiving game as they do every year but may wish they didn’t by the time this game ends. Aaron Rodgers has been sacked 43 times in 10 games yet has still managed to throw 19 touchdown passes versus just five interceptions. Now, he has the luxury of facing a Detroit defense that (a) Doesn’t pressure the quarterback well and (b) Got torched by Brady Quinn of all people. Likely without Matthew Stafford and maybe even Calvin Johnson due to injuries, the Lions look hopeless this week.

Sports betting pick: Packers -10.5

4:15 p.m. ET – Oakland Raiders vs Dallas Cowboys (-13.5)

What’s going on with the Cowboys’ NFL odds? They’ve scored 14 points in their last two weeks combined. The huge spread over Oakland suggests that oddsmakers think Tony Romo and company will bust out of their slump, but that’s no guarantee. The Raiders rank 12^th against the pass in the NFL and shocked the Bengals last week. While a Raiders win is too much to expect in Dallas,

Sports betting pick: Raiders +13.5

8:20 p.m. ET – New York Giants (-6.5) @ Denver Broncos

The Broncos’ sinking ship will fill with even more water this week. Denver can’t stop the run anymore; it’s allowed 174 or more rushing yards in three straight weeks and now faces the Giants’ No. 7 rushing offense. The Broncos also may not have starting quarterback Kyle Orton, who is battling an ankle injury. Even if he does dress, it seems teams have him figured out. Orton functions best as a caretaker. When teams stop the run or take a lead and force him to throw, he struggles. Look for the Giants to pressure whoever takes snaps for the Broncos and add to Denver’s misery.

Sports betting pick: Giants -6.5

Vanderbilt Commodores @ Tennessee Volunteers
Sports Betting Odds: Volunteers -17

The Tennessee Volunteers will have to pick up the pieces after a couple of disasters – one on the field and one off of it. The Volunteers were absolutely destroyed by the Ole Miss Running Rebels as Dexter McCluster absolutely tore up the Vols defense. The end result was a 42-17 drubbing. Along with that loss, the Vols had two key members kicked off their team – and one more to come – as they were arrested for attempted armed robbery.

Now the Volunteers have to get their focus back on the field if they plan to salvage their season and get bowl eligible.

The Vols are 5-5 right now and they get a visit from the Commodores, who are the SEC’s worst team. They are 2-9 and they have no semblance of a passing game. Last week, the Vols were destroyed on the ground by McCluster but the Rebels also have a pretty good quarterback in Jevan Sneed. The Vols had to respect him but they won’t have to respect the pass with Vandy.

This should be a fairly easy win for Tennessee simply because Vandy might not score much – if at all. Look for Lane Kiffin and his crew to get back on track with a big home win and get into the bowl picture.

Sportsbook Review Pick: Volunteers -17

Kentucky Wildcats @ Georgia Bulldogs
Sportsbook Odds: Georgia -8.5

Both Kentucky and Georgia are having similar seasons and both are currently at 6-4 entering this contest, looking to improve their positioning.

The Bulldogs lost a bunch of stars to graduation but still have persevered to win two straight and get themselves into the bowl season. Meanwhile, Kentucky has lost a slew of key players to injuries but they also have gotten into the bowl mix with two consecutive wins (and wins in four of their last five). The similarities don’t end there as both teams beat Auburn and both were trashed by Florida.

You can expect an evenly matched, entertaining game between these two teams but both teams have key injuries. The Bulldogs will be without star wideout A.J. Green while Kentucky should be without quarterback Mike Hartline.

At home, look for the Bulldogs to edge out Kentucky and get a tight win.

Internet Betting Picks: Kentucky +8.5

UFC 106 doesn’t give sports betting fans a title fight to wager on but it does offer some very even matchups that make for fun yet difficult choices. For the welterweight clash between Josh Koscheck and Anthony “Rumble” Johnson in particular, bettors are almost split down the middle. Here’s a preview and pick to help you with your decision.

Josh Koscheck (13-4) vs Anthony Johnson (8-2)
Sportsbook odds: Koscheck -105, Johnson -125

Josh Koscheck and Anthony Johnson probably have a few guys in their way before they can top the welterweight contender ladder — Dan Hardy, Jon Fitch and Thiago Alves — but they’re fearsome up-and-comers in the division. Both guys can be classified as next-generation mixed martial artists in that they’re athletes who absorb new skills like sponges.

Koscheck in particular has improved dramatically over the last few years. He was always a phenomenal wrestler and remains arguably a top-five wrestler in the entire UFC for any weight class. He’s become more dangerous over the years, however, by improving his kickboxing and developing some serious punching power. A well-rounded Koscheck has a better chance to contend for a title than he did a few years ago but his new skills sometimes hurt him too. He too frequently abandons his real strength — his wrestling — in favor of “showing” off his newfound striking ability. That cost him his fights with Thiago Alves and Paulo Thiago. It’s the equivalent to a good rushing team in NFL betting getting caught up in a passing shootout.

Anthony Johnson is likely crossing his fingers hoping that Koscheck wants to stand and trade with him. The reason: Johnson is an absolute killer. He’s 6′2″ and reportedly walks around as heavy as 220 pounds when he’s not training, so the fact that he’s fighting at 170 pounds is almost unfair. He’s an imposing physical presence with devastating knockout power. He doesn’t pound out TKOs with flurries — he can floor an opponent with a single punch or head kick. On the feet, Johnson has an advantage. On the ground, he does have a wrestling background but he’s largely untested in the UFC. Online betting fans have to think Koscheck has the advantage on the canvas, though Johnson at the very least will be hard to hold down.

Sports picks choice: Johnson -125. Koscheck can absolutely win this fight if he plays it smart and goes for the takedown, but he’s fallen in love with the striking game too much. The longer he stays standing with Johnson, the more likely he is to have his head taken off. Pick Johnson but understand that this fight could really go either way.

While most of the online betting attention will be focused on the Pacquiao Cotto betting odds, the NFL is still king in North America. Here’s a preview of two key NFC South games.

New Orleans Saints @ St. Louis Rams

The New Orleans Saints are the lone undefeated team in the NFC and they’ll get to face one of the worst teams in the conference this Sunday. The Saints head to St. Louis to face the Rams in what should be a fairly one-sided contest.

The Rams are coming off a bye week, which should help them compete for a good quarter and a half. Unfortunately, they don’t have the defense nor the offense to really compete with the Saints.

Surprisingly, the Saints have struggled in the last few weeks, falling behind the Miami Dolphins and then nearly letting the Atlanta Falcons get back into a game they had in control. Last week, the Saints were down 17-3 right after kickoff and had to come all the way back against the Carolina Panthers.

The Saints just have too many weapons for the Rams feeble defense to keep up. The Rams will try to control the game with Steven Jackson on the ground but they don’t have the weapons on offense to get in a shootout and they don’t have the defenders necessary to keep the Saints under wraps for an entire 60 minutes.

Sportsbook Pick: Saints -13.5

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Miami Dolphins

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers managed to get their first win of the season last week when the Green Bay Packers essentially handed them a win. But this week, they are in a much tougher spot.

The Bucs now head out on the road and rookie quarterback Josh Freeman will be making his first start away from home. On the other hand, the 3-5 Dolphins have been competitive this year but have lost a number of close games. They are coming off a loss to the New England Patriots and they should be ready at home for a big win.

The Bucs are having problems stopping the run and the Dolphins have one of the best outfits around. With Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams spearheading the attack, the Dolphins should be able to run wild and get the win. As long as they don’t make any mistakes like the Packers did, they should also cover.

Bet Horses Pick: Dolphins -10

Pittsburgh’s slow start was partly spurred on by the Bengals, who knocked off the champs 23-20 in Week 3. The Bengals needed a last-minute drive to top Pittsburgh, but the Steelers have looked much better since then. So who should you take at the sportsbook this weekend?

Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers
Sunday, November 15 at 1:00 p.m. ET
NFL odds: Steelers -7

The Steelers defense has been lights-out over the past three weeks, holding Cleveland, Minnesota and Denver to just 13.6 points per game. The run “D” has been especially impressive in that stretch, as those three opponents could muster just 69 yards per outing. Better yet, the Steel Curtain has been contributing to the offense; a return touchdown in Monday’s 28-10 win over the Broncos was Pittsburgh’s third defensive score in the last two games.

Pittsburgh’s offense has been doing its part, too. The Steelers have scored at least 27 points in five straight games, all victories. Offensive balance has been a big key; Ben Roethlisberger is obviously enjoying a fine campaign (14 touchdowns, fifth in yards) but Rashard Mendenhall has been great since taking over for Willie Parker. The former first-rounder has 528 yards, four touchdowns and a 5.6 yards per carry average in his last five games.

The Bengals love running the ball too. Cedric Benson has been a revelation this season; he’s averaging over 100 yards per game and has at least 16 carries in every game, including five 20-plus carry games. The passing game isn’t quite as strong. Remove Carson Palmer’s five-touchdown effort against the Bears from the equation and his numbers are rather pedestrian (nine touchdowns, seven interceptions).

Instead, the Bengals rely on their “D.” The secondary has been bolstered by two young corners–Leon Hall and Jonathan Joseph–who might form the NFL’s best duo. The run defense has been even better, ranking second in the NFL in yards allowed.

This should be a rough-and-tumble boxing match a la Pacquiao Cotto betting odds. It was close before and it will be close again, but Pittsburgh has the edge. The Steelers keep looking better each week and, while Cincy has the second-best run defense, Pittsburgh has the best. That means Benson can be removed from the equation, putting the game in Palmer’s hands. He won’t get it done against the Steelers. Bet on Pittsburgh with your NFL predictions this weekend.

Whatever the posted total is in your sportsbook for Saturday’s Big Ten showdown between No.11 Penn State and No.16 Ohio State, consider the under, which has been the result for four of their last five meetings.

Ohio State vs Penn State betting odds - Saturday, November 7, 3:30 PM ET

The Buckeyes (7-2, 4-1) pounded New Mexico State 45-0, but don’t be surprised, sportsbook players: Ohio State is not an offensive juggernaut. The Buckeyes are 63rd in the nation in offense, including 94th through the air, and quarterback Terrelle Pryor has struggled this year, thanks in part to some poor play-calling by coach Jim Tressel. Pryor was a darkhorse in many sports picks for the Heisman award, but it seems that Tressel still hasn’t figured out how to use his dual-threat pivot.

The Nittany Lions (8-1, 4-1) dropped Northwestern 34-13 on the road, and they’re a much more balanced offensive squad than the Buckeyes as they’re 33rd on the ground, powered by Evan Royster, or you can face Darryl Clark and the No.34-ranked aerial attack. Penn State has been on a mission since their upset home loss to Iowa, who lead the Big Ten, and this will be their first major sportsbook test since then.

Sportsbook odds favor the Nittany Lions by five points at home, and the Buckeyes would love nothing more than to avenge last year’s 13-6 loss at the Horseshoe at the hands of Penn State. This should be a low-scoring as the Nittany Lions are fifth in the nation in points allowed, while the Buckeyes are sixth in the country. Outside of Ohio State’s 37-17 win at Happy Valley, their recent meetings have been defensive slugfests, and this is looking to follow that trend. The Buckeyes really don’t have many outside threats besides Pryor, while the Nittany Lions can go to Royster to take the pressure off of Clark, which also brings the play-action pass into play. The Buckeyes won’t win, or at least share, their fifth straight Big Ten title, and the Nittany Lions will keep their hopes alive.

NCAA football picks: Penn State -5

The sportsbook odds for this week’s clash between Baltimore and Cincinnati will feature a pair of teams looking to knock Pittsburgh off the AFC North throne, and the Ravens are looking to follow up their win last week but they’re facing a hot Cincinnati team.

Ravens vs Bengals odds – Sunday, November 8, 1:00 PM ET

The Ravens came off their bye week and handed Denver their first loss with a 30-7 thrashing at home, powered by a stingy defense that allowed just 200 yards, including 66 on the ground. The defense is the key to the Ravens’ NFL football odds and they’ve struggled this year while getting used to not having Rex Ryan calling the plays, but they came out with that familiar intensity that always makes them one of the top NFL picks in the AFC. Joe Flacco was 20-of-25 for 175 yards and a touchdown, which was the seventh straight game in which he’s tossed a score.

The Bengals are coming off their bye week, and their last game was a 45-10 mauling of Chicago in which they forced four turnovers, while Cedric Benson got some revenge on his old team with 189 yards and a major on the ground. As impressive as that was, though, Carson Palmer was 20-of-24 for 233 yards and five touchdowns with no picks. Cincy’s NFL football odds depend heavily on Palmer’s return to form, and it’s no coincedence that the Bengals are playing much better with a healthy Palmer at the helm.

Online betting odds have the Ravens as a 3-point favorite on the road, but the Bengals have beaten the Ravens in seven of their last 10 meetings, including three of the last five in Cincinnati. The Ravens of last week looked like the Baltimore team we’ve become accustomed to, but they’ll have their hands full with a much-improved Cincinnati team. The Bengals are 30th against the pass, but they’ve had a week to study for Flacco and company. If the Bengals can get Palmer some time in the pocket, the Bengals will announce themselves as a legitimate contender in the AFC North.

NFL predictions: Bengals +3