Archive for August, 2009

How Healthy Is Nogueira?

August 28th, 2009

The UFC 102 odds are on the board and as per usual, Dana White has produced quite the card to froth over. A lot of people were talking about how UFC 101 turned out to be a boring card and how the UFC cards since UFC 100 have been somewhat deflating, but UFC 102 will pick up the slack.

The headlining event for online betting to watch will be the Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira and Randy Couture battle. It’s a fight between two legends in MMA and it’s a bout that everyone has wanted to see for a long time. Both fighters come into the matchup in different shape and with a number of question marks.

Couture, The Natural, is coming off a tough knockout loss to Brock Lesnar while Nogueira is coming off of a fight where he made Frank Mir look like Mike Tyson.

There is lots of speculation regarding Noguiera’s shape, especially after how badly he lost to Mir. Just 20 days prior to that fight, Noguiera was in a hospital bed dealing with a staph infection, which may have contributed to his bad beat. On the other hand, a lot of people are suggesting that the 33-year-old had nothing left in the tank for that fight and is running on fumes for this one after nearly 40 fights work of MMA wear and tear.

While Couture is 13 years older, the general feel is that he’s just older man with much less mileage whereas Big Nog is just a car that has been driven into the ground.

If he’s healthy and in shape, those who have placed a sports bet online know that Nogueira is still one of the best in the division and still is in line for a shot at Lesnar if he does win this fight. There are plenty of options for him as well beyong this fight, which include tilts with Cain Velasquez, Shane Carwin or maybe even the winner of the Mirko Cro Cop and Junior Dos Santos battle.

But if Couture comes out and dominates Minotauro like many people are predicting on their sports picks, then the retirement conversation for Big Nog will start up once again. He has to at least put up a fight and keep it close. If the result is one-sided loss like it was against Mir, then it truly means that Big Nog has nothing left in the tank.

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NFL Odds – Green Bay Packers Preview

August 25th, 2009

In the NFC North, the Chicago Bears, Minnesota Vikings and even the Detroit Lions have garnered more online betting attention than the Green Bay Packers. And while the other three teams have made wholesale changes at the quarterback position this offseason, the Green Bay Packers should be considered king.

The Vikings are banking on Favre and his gimpy arm to last, the Bears are hoping that gunslinger Jay Cutler can still be a Pro Bowl pivot at Soldier Field and the Lions are hoping that first-overall pick Matt Stafford is the real deal. While those teams have stolen all the headlines, the Packers could be the ones stealing the wins when they meet in the regular season.

Consistency

Everytime the offseason rolls around, people making their NFL predictions always seem to fall in love with the teams that make the biggest splashes in free agency. As the Washington Redskins have shown us, that doesn’t always work out.

The NFL odds makers know that the Green Bay Packers are a potential sleeper because they have so much consistency on their roster.

On offense, the Packers bring back the entire unit, which only figures to get stronger. Quarterback Aaron Rodgers was a first-year starter last year, running back Ryan Grant had just received his payday and receiver Greg Jennings was breaking out into Pro Bowl form. All three will only get better this year.

The spotlight has – and will – shine on Grant after finishing with just four touchdowns last year. He started slow (137 carries for 464 yards in September and October) but finished strong (175 carries for 739 yards in November and December). He’s looked particularly sharp in the preseason as well.

Transitioning To The 3-4

The Packers defense was awful last year yet the team finished 8-8. What does that say for their potential if the defense improves slightly?

In the offseason, the Packers missed out on a few sexy defensive coordinators and ended up with the tried, tested and true: Dom Capers. He’s employing a schematic switch from the 4-3 style to the 3-4 and usually, there is supposed to be a year of growing pains. Not many people making their sports picks expected the Packers defense to be this good already.

One of the toughest aspects of switching to the 3-4 is finding linebacker depth but the Packers have plenty of it. From holdovers Nick Barnett and A.J. Hawk, to the additions of second-round pick Clay Matthews, to the shift of end Aaron Kampman to outsider linebacker, to the emergence of third-year player Desmond Bishop, to the resurgence of veteran Brady Poppinga, the Packers have tons of options at linebacker.

The secondary returns intact, which should allow plenty of time for the front seven to develop. By the looks of it, they don’t need much more time.

NFC Outlook

The Packers have the youngest roster in the NFL and should have a growth spurt this year. They won eight games with a horrible defense last year and if they improve along with the offense, which is completely feasible, the Packers not only could – but should – win the NFC North. Keep an eye on them for their Super Bowl odds as this team could be the biggest sleeper in the NFC.

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NFL Betting – Packers Should Slow Down Bills At Lambeau

August 21st, 2009

This week’s NFL betting picks features a pair of teams that have potential to be sleepers in their respective conferences as Buffalo heads to Lambeau Field to meet Green Bay, and it should be no surprise that the Packers are favored at home as the Bills are 1-3 all-time on the frozen tundra of Lambeau.

Bills vs Packers Odds – Saturday, August 22, 8:00 PM ET

The Bills ran their no-huddle offense to near perfection in a 27-20 win over Chicago, as three pivots combined to go 29-of-34 for 252 yards, a touchdown and a pick. The Bills had 375 yards to the Bears’ 225 yards, and they forced five turnovers, four of which came on picks. Buffalo was without Terrell Owens, who has a toe injury, and he’ll also miss this game, which puts a dent in their online betting chances.

The Packers made short work of a lowly Cleveland team, scoring 14 in the first quarter of a 17-0 shutout. Aaron Rodgers was 5-of-10 for 102 yards and a touchdown in his action, while Tyrell Sutton ran for 91 yards on 16 carries for the Packers, who outgained the Browns 392-191. The Packers forced four interceptions, and held the ball for almost 40 minutes, dominating Cleveland on both sides of the ball, but then again, it was Cleveland. If there was a negative in this game for Green Bay, it was a pair of picks by Brian Brohm and nine penalties committed.

Betting services have made the Packers a 3-point favorite at home, and as we said before, the Bills have never fared well at Lambeau Field, so there’s an edge to the Packers. Owens is sitting, and we should see Green Bay corners Charles Woodson and Al Harris for the first time, so we’ll see how this no-huddle offense works out against a decent defense. As for that Green Bay defense, which is using a 3-4 scheme after 17 years of the 4-3, it looked excellent against the Browns, and they blitzed far more than last year. With Harris and Woodson in the lineup, they may blitz even more. Take the Packers at home in your NFL picks.

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UFC 102 Betting – Jardine vs Silva Odds

August 18th, 2009

As the best teams in NFL betting start butting heads in the preseason, some of the UFC’s top contending fighters a prepare for battle at UFC 102 next weekend. Though the card has no title fights, some highly ranked warriors will try to inch closer to a title shot. Let’s have a look at Keith Jardine and Thiago Silva, both of whom are fresh off losses to light heavyweight superstars.

Keith “The Dean of Mean” Jardine
Record: 14-5-1
Notable victories: Forrest Griffin, Chuck Liddell
UFC 102 odds: -160

STRENGTHS: Jardine is a clever fighter with an extremely unorthodox stance and “off” timing that confuses opponents. He specializes in big kicks; he can knock opponents out with head blows or slow them down with leg shots, as he did Chuck Liddell. He’s no ground master but he’s good enough to hang with Thiago Silva on the canvas.

WEAKNESSES: Jardine succeeds against counter punchers because he takes the space they give him, but he seriously struggles against aggressive fighters who walk forward. Wanderlei Silva and Houston Alexander overwhelmed and obliterated Jardine in under a minute. Thiago Silva is exactly the type of fighter who gives Jardine trouble.

Thiago Silva
Record: 13-1
Notable victories: Houston Alexander, James Irvin
UFC 102 odds: +130

STRENGTHS: Few light heavyweights can match Silva’s finishing ability. Only one of his 13 wins went to a decision and he’s knocked 10 opponents. His Muay Thai has honed him into a deadly striker who can drop guys with his hands, feet or knees. He’s respectable on the ground, having submitted a pair of fighters.

WEAKNESSES: Silva may not be the smartest fighter out there, as his aggressive style often leaves him open to big shots. If he’s not careful, he could get caught with a head kick from Jardine.

Daily sports pick: Thiago Silva +130. As long as he follows fellow Chute boxer Wanderlei Silva’s strategy and smothers Jardine early, he should score a highlight-reel knockout. I’m surprised he’s not the favored by betting services.

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NFL Betting – Weekend Preseason Picks

August 14th, 2009

While some people await NCAA football betting, the NFL fans can’t wait any longer. Even though preseason games are unpredictable, they’re still pro football games, meaning it’s a blast to bet on them. Here are some picks for a couple of exciting weekend matchups.

Cleveland Browns @ Green Bay Packers
Saturday, August 15, 8:00 p.m. ET
NFL betting favorite: Packers -3

The Packers are always fun to watch at Lambeau Field, but the road team looks poised for an upset win on Saturday. The Browns simply have a lot to play for. Derek Anderson and Brady Quinn are neck and neck for the starting job, so I’m betting management wants so see both of them leave it on the field. The Browns’ starting wideouts aren’t determined yet either. Also, remember that tough head coach Eric Mangini works his players to the bone in every practice, so he’s more likely than most coaches to make first-team guys play hard and often in a preseason game. Bet on Cleveland, as its players should be hungrier.

NFL pick: Browns +3

Seattle Seahawks @ San Diego Chargers
Saturday, August 15, 10:00 p.m. ET
NFL betting favorite: Chargers -3

An old AFC West rivalry resumes when the now-NFC-West sleeper Seattle Seahawks visit the Chargers. Based on their talent and 2008 division title, the Chargers are three-point favorites at home. However, based on the preseason tradition of keeping first-team offense snaps to a minimum, Seattle looks good for an upset this weekend. Their second-team skill players include Seneca Wallace at quarterback plus Deion Branch and Courtney Taylor at receiver. Ring a bell? Those names should, as they were essentially the first-team offense on an injury-plagued Seattle team last season. Since they’re borderline starting-caliber NFLers, they should run up the score against a Charger “D” comprised of backups for most of the game. Bet on Seattle.

NFL pick: Seahawks +3

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NFL Betting – NFL News & Notes

August 11th, 2009
BettingĀ  NFL News: Michael Vick Close To Finding A New Home

The Michael Vick saga is apparently coming close to the end. The troublesome quarterback who has been in jail over the last two years because of dog-fighting charges is now back and ready to play. Even though he’ll be suspended for the first quarter of the season, it hasn’t stopped a reported group of five teams who are hunting for his services.
The Green Bay Packers are the only team of the five to be openly trying to sign him, which is an interesting rumor. The Packers are stocked at quarterback with Aaron Rodgers but they may be trying to incorporate some forms of the Wildcat formation using Vick. Either way, it should be interesting to see where he lands.

NFL Week 1 odds: Steve Smith Carted Off The Field

For the second time in training camp, the Carolina Panthers got a big scare when Pro Bowl wideout Steve Smith was carted off the field in practice on Monday. Luckily this time, the Panthers will not have to spend the season without a key contributor.
Smith hurt his shoulder and will be out for a couple of weeks but he is expected to make a full recovery and will be back in the lineup in time for the team’s Week 1 contest against the Philadelphia Eagles. The line has shifted but not many betting picks have changed since Smith is expected to play at full strength.

NFL Week 1 Odds: Line Shifts With Bryant Injury

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers don’t exactly have a ton of weapons on offense but they are now short their best wide receiver, at least in the short term. The Bucs lost wide receiver Antonio Bryant to a meniscus injury in training camp and although he’s expected to be ready for Week 1, the sportsbooks don’t believe that quite yet.
This injury is the same knee injury that Bryant suffered last year but the good news is that he played through it. Look for him to be ready in Week 1 but unfortunately, he may have to play through this pain for a second straight year.

Rams Lose Donnie Avery For 4-6 Weeks

Not that anyone cares about the St. Louis Rams Super Bowl odds much – or the Rams in general – but they lost their top target, Donnie Avery for 4-6 weeks with a stress fracture in his left foot.
This sounds like the type of injury that could linger. Avery is known as a speedy route runner and even if he plays through pain, this is the type of injury that could limit his effectiveness.

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