UFC 101 Betting – Handicapping Kenny Florian as an Underdog

The UFC 101 odds are upon us, and many bettors have tough decisions to make. The main events feature two big-name underdogs who are used to being favorites: Kenny Florian and Forrest Griffin. Fight fans are having trouble figuring out which dog is a legit pick and which is just a money trap. Let’s start by examining Kenny Florian’s chances against the BJ “The Prodigy” Penn.

KENNY FLORIAN (13-3) +180 to beat BJ Penn

Florian is currently the +180 dog, but don’t be surprised if the lines even out a bit next week, as his lightweight title bout against Penn should be one of the closest in recent UFC memory. Both fighters are confident, versatile and intelligent, so it’s hard to imagine one dominating the other.

Is Penn a justifiable favorite? Yes. When he fights at lightweight, his fitness and commitment issues disappear, as he has to work his butt off to make weight. The lightweight BJ is the most dominant BJ, as he’s quick, reasonably big for the weight class and able to use his flexibility to control opponents on the ground and set up submissions.

However, if you’re the type who chases betting underdogs, Kenny Florian is a legitimate choice. He has some matchup advantages over Penn that give him a serious chance to win. For one, he fought as high up as 185 pounds early in his UFC career, so Florian is at least Penn’s physical equal, size-wise. Secondly, he has the standup advantage. His boxing is outstanding and his Muay Thai clinch sets up devastating knees. Lastly, he may be the smarter fighter. Penn is smart, but more in an instinctual sense, just like Anderson Silva, whereas Florian is a student, like Georges St-Pierre. GSP beat Penn using a pre-set game plan and betting management experts should expect Florian to enter the Octagon with a planned strategy of his own. He’s a good underdog pick.

UFC 101 Odds – Handicapping the Secondary Fights

Chances are, you’ve started UFC 101 betting already and placed some wagers on Penn/Florian and Silva/Griffin. But what about the other fights on the card? They feature very few household names, but there’s still money to be won if you do your homework. We’re here to help you with that.

Amir Sadollah (1-0) vs Johnny Hendricks (5-0)
Offshore sportsbook odds: Sadollah -125, Hendricks -105

Finally, Ultimate Fighter 7 winner Amir Sadollah gets to fight in the Octagon again. He had two fights cancelled due to injury, the most recent due to a broken clavicle, but he’s finally ready to go. Though he’s still learning, Sadollah is a skilled ground fighter with strong Jiu-Jitsu. He can submit opponents, as he did C.B. Dollaway to win TUF at welterweight. His Sambo background also helps him take opponents to the ground and force them to fight his fight. His opponent, Johnny Hendricks, won’t be easy to face. Hendricks is a wrestler who also has good striking power for a welterweight, as evidenced by his three knockout victories. He’s a finisher who should test Sadollah’s chin with his boxing.

Sadollah is the favorite but he may be rusty; look for the slight underdog Hendricks to overpower Sadollah and bludgeon him with strikes en route to a victory.

Daily sports pick: Hendricks -105

Kendall Grove (12-5) vs Ricardo Almeida (10-3)
Offshore sportsbook odds: Grove +150, Almeida -180

He’re s possible upset pick for you. Ricardo Almeida is a solid submission artist and has scored wins over some good fighters, including Nate Marquardt. He’s well-versed in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu and wins most of his fights via various chokes. However, he’s not the most difficult matchup for Kendall Grove. Grove has a questionable chin and often gets knocked out by power punchers, but Almeida has zero knockout victories in his career. Against an equally skilled Jiu-Jitsu fighter, Almeida won’t have his usual advantage. Standing up, Grove isn’t an absolute killer but he has good Muay Thai and can finish opponents occasionally. It’s smart betting management to go with the more versatile Grove to pull off the upset.

Daily sports pick: Grove +150

MLB Betting – Reds Aim To Bounce-Back After Historic Beat Down

22-1 sounds more like an online NFL betting result and less like the final score of a baseball game, but that was the home-away numbers in the box score at the end of last night’s Cincinnati Reds-Philadelphia Phillies contest.

I’m betting management on the Reds side wasn’t too pleased to see the Phillies keep on hitting throughout the game. The Phillies scored 10 runs in the first inning and were up 16-1 when they added six more runs – including a grand slam – off of Reds utility man Paul Janish, who was forced in to pitch. We’ll see if tempers boil over.

Cincinnati Reds @ Philadelphia Phillies

Sportsbook betting odds: Phillies -145

The Cincinnati Reds have lost two straight games and have now dropped below .500 at 40-41. That’s the bad news. The good news is that they are still just 3.5 games out of first place in the NL Central and can get back on track with a win tonight.

Meanwhile, the Philadelphia Phillies are cruising right now and the defending World Series champs have won four straight. The scary part might be that might that Jimmy Rollins, who was the 2007 NL MVP, is finally getting going.

Rollins, who batted .207 in April, .238 in May and .167 in June, has finally gotten going in July. He had 26 RBIs in his first 304 at-bats but has six in his last 22 at-bats.

In July, Rollins is hitting .455 and he’s starting to get in a rhythm.

J.A. Happ will start for the Phillies and he has been a nice surprise so far. The rookie has a 5-0 record with a 2.96 ERA. He’s also allowed just two earned runs in his last two starts, which has spanned 16 innings.

Happ will take on Aaron Harang, who has really struggled on the road this year. Harang has an overall ERA of 3.86 and a home ERA of 2.83 but when he pitches on the road, that number inflates to 4.94. Harang is 0-4 with a 4.65 ERA in his last seven starts.

Over his last five starts, Harang has alternated good and bad. He has three starts where he has lasted seven innings or more and sandwiched in between are two outings where he lasted just 4.2 innings and two innings.

The Phillies are hot so stick with him for now.

Daily Sportsbook Betting Pick: Phillies -145

Baseball Betting – Wednesday MLB Picks

Sportsbook tennis betting isn’t everyone’s cup of tea, so it’s a good thing there’s so much baseball to bet on every day. Let’s have a look at some important National-League matchups for Wednesday.

Mets vs Brewers odds
Wednesday, July 1, 2:05 p.m. ET
Mike Pelfrey (5-3, 4.67) vs Yovani Gallardo (8-4, 2.86)

It’s official (well, unofficial if you want to get technical about it): Yovani Gallardo is a true major league ace. He’s walked 44 batters already this season but holds opponents to a .193 average, which should tell you a lot. Think he gets his outs by including grounders? Nope. He’s especially dominant at home, where’s he’s 4-2 with a 2.66 ERA and more strikeouts than innings pitched. Mike Pelfrey has been adequate for a struggling, hobbled Mets team but he does most of his damage at home. His road ERA is 5.79, which is really bad news since he faces big boppers like Prince Fielder and Ryan Braun Wednesday. I can’t endorse the Mets’ baseball odds.

Best MLB predictions pick: Brewers

Giants vs Cardinals odds
Wednesday, July 1, 8:15 p.m. ET
Matt Cain (9-2, 2.57) vs Adam Wainwright (8-5, 3.51)

Matt Cain’s dream season finally hit a speed bump when the Brewers beat him up in his last start. Was it an anomaly in an All-Star season or the start of a fall back to Earth? Whatever is is, Cain could be in for another rough night Wednesday. He struggles mightily at Busch Stadium in his career and Albert Pujols has his number, batting .500 off him with a homer, a walk and no strikeouts in eight at-bats. Adam Wainwright got pushed around by the Giants the last time he faced them, but that was on the road. He’s consistently strong at Busch Stadium and, while his homer rate is way up according to gambling software stats, he’s not facing a super-potent lineup, so he should do enough to win a close matchup.

Best MLB predictions pick: Cardinals