Rory Gold

If you like sportsbook betting, especially Nascar betting, you’re in heaven right now. The summer season is here — that means the Daytona odds are super close — and we kick things off at New Hampshire. Who should we pick for the Lenox Industrial Tools 301 at New Hampshire Motor Speedway?

Jimmie Johnson
New Hampshire odds: +600

Here’s your big race favorite. He’s having a solid year, with a pair of wins under his belt. Better yet, he won at New Hampshire in 2003 and his 9.0 finishing average is nothing to sneeze it. He also has four top-10s there. He’s a nice, safe pick.

Denny Hamlin
New Hampshire odds: +700

If New Hampshire pedigree is what you want when making your daily sportsbook picks, Hamlin’s your man. He’s heating up, with back to back top fives entering the race, and his average New Hampshire finish is 5.0, tops among active drivers. Hard to pass him up, especially when he has slightly better value than Johnson.

Jeff Gordon
New Hampshire odds: +800

Probably a trap pick here. Gordon has a New Hampshire win but that was 14 years ago. He does have eight top-10s there, so you can’t count him out.

Tony Stewart
New Hampshire odds: +900

Stewart offers the best value this week among the big contenders. He’s hungry for a win after placing second at Infineon and he’s a two-time winner at New Hampshire. He has a good feel for this track.

Best betting management pick: Tony Stewart. Good value at +900 and he knows how to win at New Hampshire.

With the UFC odds heating up for the centennial celebration and Wimbledon odds not really getting into important matches for a few more days, it’s the calm before the sports betting storm. In the meantime, let’s make some baseball picks as the MLB inches toward the halfway mark of the season.

Wednesday, June 24

Cubs @ Tigers – 7:05 p.m. ET

Rich Harden (4-3, 5.27) vs Rick Porcello (8-4, 3.54)

Two of baseball’s hotter teams clash in Detroit when the Cubs travel to Comerica Park. They’ll be in tough against rookie Rick Porcello, who continues to impress, though he’s more vulnerable at home 4.22 ERA.  Meanwhile, flamethrower Rich Harden continues to struggle but everything could click at any moment. Some run support from slumping Alfonso Soriano would go a long way.

Phillies @ Rays – 7:08 p.m. ET

Joe Blanton (4-3, 5.28) vs Matt Garza (4-5, 3.83)

The World Series rematch continues! Joe Blanton usually pitches better on the road, but he struggles at Tampa’s Tropicana field (7.64 ERA). Matt Garza, meanwhile, usually pitches his best against top teams. The Rays will be the favorite, but the powerful Philly bats can end a slump at any moment.

Thursday, June 25

Cardinals @ Mets – 1:10 p.m. ET

Chris Carpenter (5-1, 1.53) vs Johan Santana (8-5, 3.22)

Is this the pitching matchup of the year so far? Baseball predictions don’t get tougher than Carpenter-Santana. When Carpenter is healthy, he’s among the game’s best, and he’s proving that this year. He also has red-hot Albert Pujols supporting him. But will that be enough to overcome Santana, perhaps the NL’s top ace, in New York?

Dodgers @ White Sox – 2:05 p.m. ET

Chad Billingsley (9-3, 2.83) vs Clayton Richard (2-1, 4.03)

If Carpenter and Santana don’t watch their backs, L.A.’s Billingsley will steal the Cy Young from them this year. The Dodgers’ workhorse seems to give a quality start every time he takes the hill. He still has an uphill battle against the big White Sox bats in homer-friendly U.S. Cellular Field, though. And Clayton Richard is holding his own in Chicago’s rotation.

Friday, June 26

Giants @ Brewers – 8:05 p.m. ET

Matt Cain (9-1, 2.28) vs Yovani Gallardo (7-4, 3.00)

How many Cy Young contenders are there in the NL? 10? Two more go head to head when Matt Cain and the Giants visit the Milwaukee Brewers in a battle of Wild-card contenders. Cain is pitching as well as anyone on the planet this month but he faces a potent lineup and will have to keep the ball down, as Gallardo should mow through the San Fran lineup. This one is so close to call that you may want to try out some betting software to help you beat the sportsbook.

There is probably no greater expert in the science of tells than Mike Caro. Caro, a long-time professional player, author and lecturer on poker theory, dedicated himself in large part to a better comprehension of the human animal and its behavior when attempting to deceive. The result was ‘The Book of Tells’, considered by most live pros to be one of the holiest tomes in learning the nuances of the game.

It’s Caro’s primary contention that when trying to deceive, people will instinctually go overboard in pushing the other envelope. In poker, this pattern of behavior can be summed up by six telling words: Read more

Ultimate Fighter Betting

With sportsbook odds up for Saturday’s Klitchko/Chagaev fight and a free UFC card on Spike TV this Saturday, it’s a nice weekend to be a fight fan. The Ultimate Fighter finale pits the finalists of the U.S. vs U.K. season against each other, but the biggest fights of the night feature already established fighters, several of which won their seasons of The Ultimate Fighter.

Let’s make some picks for the Sanchez/Guida odds and Stevenson/Diaz odds, shall we?

Diego Sanchez (22-2) vs Clay Guida (25-6)

Ultimate Fighter odds: Sanchez -260, Guida +200

Unless Frankie Edgar snatches it, Diego “Nightmare” Sanchez could be one win away from a lightweight title shot against the winner of the Penn/Florian fight. An extremely intense fighter, he made a successful transition to lightweight in his last fight against Joe Stevenson, showcasing solid technical striking to accompany his already-strong ground grappling skills.

Sanchez faces the energetic fan favorite Clay “the Carpenter” Guida, known for his long hair and busy, smothering style. What he lacks in size and talent, he makes up in fitness and heart; he latches onto opponents and never lets go, often winning over judges because he controls the pace of his fights.

As likeable as Guida is, Sanchez is probably the most talented fighter he’s faced so far in his career. If you use handicapping software, it will break down the advantages in Sanchez’s favor everywhere. He’s a better striker and he’s stronger – remember, he once fought two weight classes higher. Don’t expect Guida to pull off the upset.

Daily sports pick: Diego Sanchez -260

Nate Diaz (10-3) vs Joe Stevenson (34-10)

Ultimate Fighter odds: Diaz -140, Stevenson +110

Can the enigmatic Diaz finally break through? He joins Sanchez and his opponent, Joe “Daddy” Stevenson, as Ultimate Fighter winners competing Saturday night. Diaz is a bit of a freak in the lightweight division because he’s six feet tall, giving him a huge reach advantage and making his Jiu-Jitsu game that much better. He’ll likely try to submit Stevenson, and that won’t be an easy task. Stevenson is a strong wrestler with great ground-and-pound and can also submit opponents with his trademark guillotine choke.

However, Stevenson is devolving when he should be evolving. He’s making a habit of losing important fights, as BJ Penn, Kenny Florian and Diego Sanchez all outclassed him. He has to stop trying to be a striker – he’s just not very good at it, perhaps because of his stumpy stature – and should focus on what he does best. There’s nothing to suggest he’ll change for this fight, so Diaz has the advantage in the online sports wagering.

Daily sports pick: Nate Diaz -140

MLB Weekly Preview – June 17-19

Not into the US Open sports betting online? Not to worry – interleague play rages on in Major League Baseball and there are plenty of exciting games to bet on. Let’s have a look at some of the week’s best matchups.

Wednesday, June 17

Diamondbacks @ Royals – 8:10 p.m. ET

Max Scherzer (3-4, 3.63) vs Zack Greinke (8-2, 1.72)

Two of the most dynamic young hurlers in baseball betting go head to head at Kaufmann Stadium Wednesday when AL Cy Young frontrunner Zack Greinke hosts Max Scherzer and the Diamondbacks. The D-backs are struggling but young Scherzer is a bright spot – he’s allowed three or fewer runs in five of six starts. Meanwhile, Greinke is mortal in June with a 5.84 ERA, though his home ERA for the season is a run lower than his road ERA.

Tigers @ Cardinals – 8:15 p.m. ET

Edwin Jackson (6-3, 2.24) vs Todd Wellemeyer (5-6, 2.20)

Young Edwin Jackson has a tough task when he travels to Busch Stadium to face Albert Pujols and the improved St. Louis Cardinals, but his sparking 1.55 road ERA suggest he may be up to the task. Todd Wellemeyer has struggled to keep the ball in the park all season long, so conservative betting management players will likely pick the safer Tigers here. But can you pass up the Cards as an underdog at home?

Thursday, June 18

White Sox @ Cubs – 2:20 p.m. ET

Jose Contreras (2-5, 5.2) vs Randy Wells (0-3, 2.55)

The battle for Windy City supremacy continues Thursday afternoon at Wrigley, where Randy Wells hopes to get some much-deserved run support. Amazingly, he’s 0-3 despite a 2.55 ERA in seven starts. He has a tough test against Jose Contreras; the veteran has looked like a new pitcher since returning from the minors, tossing 16 scoreless innings over two starts. The Cubbies need Alfonso Soriano (.625 average against Contreras) to chip in some offense if they want to finally give Wells his win.

Rays @ Rockies – 3:10 p.m. ET

Matt Garza (4-4, 3.63) vs Ubaldo Jimenez (5-6, 3.92)

Two of baseball’s hottest teams collide, sending their fiery young starters to the mound, and something has to give. It’s tough to bet against the Rockies right now in your MLB predictions , especially with Todd Helton partying like it’s 10 years ago (23 RBI in his last 23 games). But Matt Garza always seems to pitch his best when the competition is tough, so you can’t count the Rays out.

Friday, June 19

Dodgers @ Angels

Chad Billingsley (9-3, 2.72) vs Joe Saunders (7-4, 3.66)

Could the Angels be in for a world of hurt on Friday? Dodgers ace Chad Billingsley saves his best work for opposing parks, sporting a 1.94 road ERA. However, the Angels could be sending the right guy to the hill in Joe Saunders, who always pitches well at home and has a 2.92 ERA in two career starts against the Dodgers. Do you capitalize on the chance to pick the Angels as underdogs at home or will Torii Hunter’s injury scare you away when you wager online?

While the diehard sportsbook players are following the PGA’s St. Jude Classic this weekend, most golf bettors are preparing for next week’s U.S. Open at Bethpage Black. Odds have been posted and, while the St. Jude could shift things slightly, we have a pretty good idea of who will succeed at the U.S. Open. Bethpage Black favors long hitters, meaning we can probably count out guys like Zach Johnson, who is having a great year but doesn’t have the length to keep up.

Here are a few names to think about before betting online on the U.S. Open odds next week. Read more

UFC 99 odds for Saturday’s event in Cologne, Germany are highlighted by a pair of fighters still looking to prove they have some gas in the tank as Rich Franklin and Wanderlei Silva clash in a catchweight fight. One of the rising stars in the UFC will also be available if you’re betting online, while a pair of former “Ultimate Fighter” participants will also be on the card.

Franklin (24-4-0-1) is the favorite at -140 in his catchweight bout of 195 pounds with Silva (32-9-0-1), who has struggled with four losses in his last five fights. Despite the catchweight, it should be pretty even as both are used to fighting at 205 pounds. Silva is trying to bounce back from an awful knockout he suffered at the hands of “Rampage” Jackson at UFC 92, while Franklin was beaten in a controversial split decision by Dan Henderson at UFC 93. Silva’s aggressive style should set the tone for the match, but he’s been making more mistakes as he’s gotten older, leaving himself open. Franklin should be disciplined enough to catch Silva when he’s open.

Cain Velasquez (5-0) will try to continue his UFC ascent as a -200 favorite in your sportsbook when he meets Cheick Kongo (14-4-1) in a heavyweight bout. Velasquez has only gone past the first round once, in his last fight against Denis Stojnic in a UFC Fight Night card in February. Kongo is a replacement for the injured Heath Herring, who beat Kongo in a split decision at UFC 82, and he’ll have an eye on the winner of the Brock Lesnar-Frank Mir match for the heavyweight title a UFC 100. It’ll be interesting to see how Velasquez’s chin holds up against a man of Kongo’s strength, so UFC betting players will have to pay attention to that.

Mike “Quick” Swick (13-2) earned his nickname with a 20-second knockout of Alex Schoenauer in the finale of the first “Ultimate Fighter” season, while Ben Saunders (7-0-2) beat Dan Barrera in a decision in the sixth season of the show. Swick is the UFC betting favorite at -225 in this in this welterweight bout, and he’ll be going for the knockout, but Saunders is a well-rounded fighter who can strike as well as go to the ground. An UFC betting upset isn’t out of the question in this fight.

Figuring out your odds of winning a given pot is the single most important calculation in poker. Basically if the percentage chance of you winning a particular pot is greater than the percentage of a pot your bet equates to, you are going to win a lot of money playing online poker.

There you go, you just figured out how to play winning online poker. Of course, this is a pretty simple calculation when you flop a strong, made hand; top pair or three of a kind is likely to be in the lead, so make your bets. Figuring out when the math is good (or ‘when you have the best of it’) despite being behind in the hand is a little trickier.

Let’s do a sample hand. Read more